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MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 25 out of 343)

2. SF - Logan Webb (No. 26)

3. HOU - Framber Valdez (No. 27)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Sean Nolin (No. 324 out of 343)

2. MIN - Charlie Barnes (No. 317)

3. DET - Tyler Alexander (No. 294)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. BOS at CLE - Ron Kulpa (No. 2 out of 111)

2. TB at BAL - Doug Eddings (No. 6)

3. SD at LAA - Vic Carapazza (No. 21)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at ATL - Mark Carlson (No. 12 out of 111)

2. HOU at TEX - Chad Fairchild (No. 14)

3. KC at SEA - Jeff Nelson (No. 20)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TOR at DET (89 degrees)

2. NYY at OAK (87 degrees)

3. CHC at CWS (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. HOU at TEX (70 degrees)

2. KC at SEA (71 degrees)

3. CIN at MIA (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 2.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 3.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Twins

Projected: 10.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Padres at Angels

Projected: 10.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Rockies at Dodgers

Projected: 9.91 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Reds at Marlins

Projected: 7.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Nationals at Mets

Projected: 7.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Astros at Rangers

Projected: 8.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Oakland Athletics (70-59) vs. New York Yankees (76-52)

O/U: 8.5 | OAK -125 | NYY + 105

Frankie Montas (THE BAT's No. 66 SP) vs. Nestor Cortes (THE BAT's No. 134 SP)

Tony Randazzo (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 29 in MLB)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 28 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

87 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

5 mph out to RF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Nestor Cortes' skillset (40% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Oakland Coliseum (No. 8 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  So far in 2021, Nestor Cortes has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 2.56 ERA despite a 3.41 FIP

·  The Oakland Athletics' 21.1 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 least on today's slate of games

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Sean Murphy, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Seth Brown)

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.317 wOBA going forward

·  The Yankees have four players (Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Oakland Athletics Moneyline as it opened at + 110 before dropping to -125

·  The OVER has 67% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The most popular prop for the game is Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 295/-525)

Philadelphia Phillies (64-64) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (44-86)

O/U: 8.5 | PHI -210 | ARI + 175

Kyle Gibson (THE BAT's No. 121 SP) vs. Humberto Mejia (THE BAT's No. 253 SP)

Lance Barrett (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 37 in MLB)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

75 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

11 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Gibson is throwing a cutter 13% more often this season (13% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Citizens Bank Park is baseball's No. 9 best park for home runs, but Kyle Gibson's ground ball-heavy skillset (52% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Kyle Gibson (52% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (33% FB% since 2019), Humberto Mejia may not be a great fit for the No. 9 HR in baseball, Citizens Bank Park, today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, Humberto Mejia (33% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Humberto Mejia (3.60 ERA) has been underperforming his 1.60 FIP by 2.00 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  Philadelphia boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Andrew McCutchen, Didi Gregorius, Freddy Galvis)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The D-Backs Moneyline has 38% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 185 to + 175 resulting in reverse line movement

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 76% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash is on the Phillies

·  The most popular prop for the game is Bryce Harper's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 295/-515)

Pittsburgh Pirates (47-82) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (65-62)

O/U: 8.5 | PIT + 165 | STL -190

Steven Brault (THE BAT's No. 171 SP) vs. Adam Wainwright (THE BAT's No. 114 SP)

Bill Welke (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 38 in MLB)

PNC Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 26 HR | No. 25 K)

86 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

3 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Steven Brault's fastball (90.2 mph) has been 1.5 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Steven Brault's fastball (2078 rpm) has lost 101 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Steven Brault's huge platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face nine of them today

·  Adam Wainwright has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.10 ERA is 0.50 points below his 3.60 FIP

·  The Pirates have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.292 wOBA going forward

·  Pittsburgh boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Ben Gamel, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings)

·  The Cardinals (0.304 wOBA) have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Cardinals offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong, Nolan Arenado)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The Cardinals Moneyline has 68% of the cash and 64% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Paul Goldschmidt's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 300/-535) is the most popular prop for the game

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