MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 4 out of 338)

2. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 6)

3. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 326 out of 338)

2. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 317)

3. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 307)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at OAK - Phil Cuzzi (No. 2 out of 111)

2. PIT at STL - Roberto Ortiz (No. 8)

3. MIA at CIN - Jim Wolf (No. 11)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. DET at TOR - Nic Lentz (No. 9 out of 111)

2. KC at CHC - Jerry Meals (No. 13)

3. CWS at TB - Gerry Davis (No. 14)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at CIN (87 degrees)

2. KC at CHC (86 degrees)

3. WSH at MIL (86 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SF at OAK (64 degrees)

2. PHI at SD (70 degrees)

3. NYM at LAD (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 6.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 110

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -135

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Orioles

Projected: 11.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

·  D-Backs at Rockies

Projected: 10.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O + 100

·  Royals at Cubs

Projected: 10.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Padres

Projected: 7.80 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  Giants at Athletics

Projected: 8.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Pirates at Cardinals

Projected: 8.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

Oakland Athletics (70-53) vs. San Francisco Giants (78-44)

O/U: 8.0 | OAK -110 | SF -110

Sean Manaea (THE BAT's No. 24 SP) vs. Kevin Gausman (THE BAT's No. 20 SP)

Phil Cuzzi (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 2 in MLB)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 27 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

64 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

8 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Sean Manaea's fastball (91.3 mph) has been 1.7 mph faster than it was last season

·  Sean Manaea's fastball usage (0% in 2021, 54% in 2020) has decreased 54% this season

·  Sean Manaea's sinker usage (59% in 2021, 0% in 2020) has increased 59% this season

·  Kevin Gausman is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Kevin Gausman's 2.40 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.55 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Matt Olson, Seth Brown, Sean Murphy, Matt Chapman)

·  The Giants (21.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  San Francisco boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Kris Bryant, Alex Dickerson, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs

·  The Oakland Athletics Moneyline is showing the most line movement today as it opened at + 110 before dropping to -110

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 54% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 31% of the cash is on the OVER

·  This season the Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 75-47 resulting in + 33.30 Units (22% ROI)

·  This season the Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 65-58 resulting in + 8.05 Units (6% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles (38-83) vs. Atlanta Braves (66-56)

O/U: 10.5 | BAL + 155 | ATL -170

Matt Harvey (THE BAT's No. 301 SP) vs. Drew Smyly (THE BAT's No. 234 SP)

Hunter Wendelstedt (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 33 in MLB)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

80 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin on Drew Smyly's fastball (2100 rpm) has been 149 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Drew Smyly's reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face eight of them today

·  The Orioles offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino, Maikel Franco, Ryan Mountcastle)

·  The Braves have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.324 wOBA going forward

·  The Braves offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman, Jorge Soler, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Orioles Moneyline has steamed 15 cents as it opened at + 170 and is now + 155

·  The Run Line has the most lopsided action today with 94% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash on the Braves

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 64-47 resulting in + 7.80 Units (6% ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 64-53 resulting in + 5.07 Units (4% ROI)

Colorado Rockies (56-66) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (41-82)

O/U: 11.5 | COL -145 | ARI + 125

Kyle Freeland (THE BAT's No. 112 SP) vs. Zac Gallen (THE BAT's No. 44 SP)

Brian O'Nora (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 25 in MLB)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

80 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

11 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Freeland's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  Zac Gallen's fastball usage (53% in 2021, 39% in 2020) has increased 14% this season

·  Zac Gallen has been throwing a cutter (15% increase) far less often in 2021 (9% usage) than he did in 2020 (24% usage)

·  The Rockies (28.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rockies have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Dom Nunez, Kyle Freeland, Sam Hilliard)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The D-Backs Moneyline has 45% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 140 to + 125 resulting in reverse line movement

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 64% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 32% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Colorado Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 67-53 resulting in + 7.70 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been their Game Total Over which is 65-54 generating + 6.15 Units (5% ROI)

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