MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Saturday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 355)

2. SF - Kevin Gausman (No. 20)

3. LAD - Julio Urias (No. 22)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CHC - Adrian Sampson (No. 344 out of 355)

2. STL - Jon Lester (No. 340)

3. MIN - Griffin Jax (No. 309)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CIN at PIT - Mike Estabrook (No. 1 out of 111)

2. SD at SF - Ron Kulpa (No. 2)

3. BOS at WSH - Phil Cuzzi (No. 6)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. NYM at ATL - Brian Knight (No. 15 out of 111)

2. OAK at HOU - Shane Livensparger (No. 17)

3. TB at NYY - Lance Barksdale (No. 34)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at LAD (84 degrees)

2. COL at ARI (81 degrees)

3. NYM at ATL (79 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAA at SEA (61 degrees)

2. BAL at TOR (66 degrees)

3. CLE at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.22 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Royals

Projected: 9.96 runs

·  Athletics at Astros

Projected: 9.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Rays at Yankees

Projected: 9.86 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Marlins

Projected: 7.43 runs

·  Angels at Mariners

Projected: 7.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Padres at Giants

Projected: 7.91 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Toronto Blue Jays (89-71) vs. Baltimore Orioles (52-108)

O/U: 8.5 | TOR -240 | BAL + 200

Alek Manoah (THE BAT's No. 42 SP) vs. John Means (THE BAT's No. 57 SP)

Rogers Centre

66 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

13 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  So far in 2021, Alek Manoah has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.35 ERA despite a 4.00 FIP

·  This season, John Means's fastball (92.2 mph) has been 1.2 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  The Blue Jays (19.1 K percentage, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Blue Jays' 0.338 team wOBA makes them the No. 6 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Blue Jays have five players (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Orioles (0.305 wOBA) have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 68 percent of the bet tickets and 87 percent of the cash is on the Blue Jays

·  This season the Blue Jays Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 82-65 resulting in + 11.40 Units (7 percent ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 83-71 resulting in + 3.18 Units (2 percent ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Alek Manoah's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+ 100)

Texas Rangers (59-101) vs. Cleveland Indians (79-81)

O/U: 8.5 | TEX + 135 | CLE -155

Jordan Lyles (THE BAT's No. 283 SP) vs. Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 98 SP)

Nestor Ceja (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 34 in MLB)

Globe Life Field (No. 20 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jordan Lyles's fastball (92.4 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  The spin rate on Jordan Lyles's fastball (2279 rpm) has increased by 134 rpm in 2021

·  Jordan Lyles has been throwing a slider (13 percent increase) far more often in 2021 (26 percent usage) than he did in 2020 (13 percent usage)

·  Jordan Lyles has been throwing a curveball (11 percent increase) far less often in 2021 (18 percent usage) than he did in 2020 (29 percent usage)

·  Triston McKenzie's fastball (2254 rpm) has lost nearly 100 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Triston McKenzie (40 percent FB percent since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  THE BAT projects Triston McKenzie (4.14 projected ERA) to be much better going forward than his 4.81 ERA season-to-date indicates

·  The Indians are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K percentage of 25.9 percent according to THE BAT X

·  The projected lineup for the Indians holds four extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Roberto Perez, Franmil Reyes, Bobby Bradley, Bradley Zimmer. THE BAT projects all for a Roberto Perez, Franmil Reyes, Bobby Bradley, Bradley Zimmer+ underlying K percent

·  The Indians have four players (Bradley Zimmer, Amed Rosario, Harold Ramirez, Myles Straw) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Indians Run Line has steamed 10 cents as it opened at -1.5 (+ 110) and is now -1.5 (+ 100)

·  The Cleveland Indians Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 86-71 resulting in + 11.40 Units (6 percent ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 350/-685)

Chicago White Sox (92-68) vs. Detroit Tigers (76-84)

O/U: 8.5 | CWS -270 | DET + 230

Lucas Giolito (THE BAT's No. 34 SP) vs. Matt Manning (THE BAT's No. 252 SP)

Malachi Moore (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 42 in MLB)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

71 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

6 mph in from RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Lucas Giolito is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  The White Sox' 0.329 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Tigers are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K percentage of 26.0 percent according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Tigers and their 0.306 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Tigers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo, Robbie Grossman)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The White Sox Moneyline has 78 percent of the bet tickets and 53 percent of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The Detroit Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 76-79 resulting in + 27.10 Units (17 percent ROI)

·  The Chicago White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 78-77 resulting in + 1.40 Units (1 percent ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Lucas Giolito's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-115)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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