MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. TB - Tyler Glasnow (No. 6 out of 300)

2. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 23)

3. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 24)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. SF - Aaron Sanchez (No. 219 out of 300)

2. BAL - Dean Kremer (No. 179)

3. STL - Adam Wainwright (No. 175)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYM at STL (79 degrees)

2. MIL at PHI (71 degrees)

3. TB at LAA (70 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SF at COL (45 degrees)

2. BAL at SEA (54 degrees)

3. TEX at MIN (58 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

  • Los Angeles Dodgers

    Projected: 5.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

  • Colorado Rockies

    Projected: 4.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O 145

  • New York Mets

    Projected: 4.91 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

  • Pittsburgh Pirates

    Projected: 3.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -170

  • Baltimore Orioles

    Projected: 3.88 runs

  • Texas Rangers

    Projected: 4.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

  • Dodgers at Cubs

    Projected: 9.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

  • Giants at Rockies

    Projected: 9.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

  • Brewers at Phillies

    Projected: 9.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

  • Orioles at Mariners

    Projected: 7.95 runs

  • Pirates at Padres

    Projected: 7.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O 100

  • Rangers at Twins

    Projected: 8.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Philadelphia Phillies (13-15) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (17-11)

 

9.0 O/U | PHI -120 | MIL 100

 

Vince Velasquez (THE BAT's No. 144 SP) vs. Adrian Houser (THE BAT's No. 133 SP)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 12 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

71 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

10 mph out to LF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

  • Citizens Bank Park is baseball's No. 6 best park for home runs, but Adrian Houser's groundball-heavy skillset (58% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball
  • Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Adrian Houser (58% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today
  • Adrian Houser has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.65 ERA is 0.81 points below his 4.46 FIP
  • The Phillies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.295 wOBA going forward
  • The Brewers (26.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

  • There is lopsided action on the Game Total with 79% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash is on the UNDER
  • The Philadelphia Phillies Run Line is getting lopsided action as it has 80% of the cash and 53% of the bet tickets thus far
  • This season Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline has been their most profitable market and are 17-11 to generate 4.50 Units (13% ROI)
  • The most popular prop for the game is Bryce Harper's Home Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 250/-400)

 

Chicago Cubs (12-16) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (17-12)

 

8.5 O/U | CHC 165 | LAD -190

 

Kyle Hendricks (THE BAT's No. 85 SP) vs. Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 24 SP)

Wrigley Field (No. 7 Runs | No. 17 HR | No. 20 K)

65 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

9 mph out to CF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

  • Walker Buehler (94.6 mph) has lost 1.9 mph off his fastball so far in 2021
  • Walker Buehler's fastball spin rate (2650 rpm) has jumped 104 rpm since 2020
  • Kyle Hendricks (85.7 mph) has lost 1.1 mph off his fastball so far in 2021
  • Kyle Hendricks has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today
  • The Dodgers have 4 players (Chris Taylor, Edwin Rios, Will Smith, Justin Turner) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, second-most in MLB
  • The Cubs (24.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
  • The Cubs have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Kyle Hendricks, Jake Marisnick, Javier Baez)
  • The Cubs have five players (Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, David Bote, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #1 most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

  • There is lopsided action on the Game Total with 68% of the bet tickets and 85% of the cash is on the OVER
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline is getting lopsided action as it has 75% of the cash and 60% of the bet tickets thus far
  • On the year, Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and are 20-8 to generate 10.77 Units (34% ROI)
  • The most popular prop for the game is Walker Buehler's Strikeouts Prop which is currently at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-165/ 125)
  • The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as the opening OVER 8.0 Runs (-105) has been bet up by sharps to OVER 8.5 (-115)

 

Los Angeles Angels (13-13) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (14-15)

7.5 O/U | LAA 100 | TB -120

Shohei Ohtani (THE BAT's No. 23 SP) vs. Tyler Glasnow (THE BAT's No. 6 SP)

Angel Stadium (No. 20 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

70 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

  • Tyler Glasnow is throwing a slider 30% more often this season (30% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)
  • Tyler Glasnow is throwing a curveball 22% less often this season (13% usage) than he did last season (35% usage)
  • Shohei Ohtani has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.29 ERA is 0.79 points below his 4.08 FIP
  • The Angels (20.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
  • According to THE BAT X, the Angels and their 0.321 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021
  • The Rays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the #7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.295 wOBA going forward
  • The Angels have 4 players (Justin Upton, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Shohei Ohtani) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, third-most in MLB
  • The Rays have four players (Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Mike Zunino) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, third-most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

  • There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 59% of the bet tickets are on the Angels, but 92% of the cash is on the Rays
  • There is lopsided action on the Game Total with 72% of the bet tickets and 72% of the cash is on the OVER
  • The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line is getting lopsided action as it has 82% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets thus far
  • The Los Angeles Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and are 15-11 to generate 2.70 Units (9% ROI)
  • The most popular prop for the game is Tyler Glasnow's Strikeouts Prop which is currently at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts ( 120/-165)
  • The Game Total has steamed 5 cents toward the OVER 7.5 Runs, as it's opening juice was -110 and is now -115

 

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