MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 8 out of 300)

2. CWS - Lucas Giolito (No. 11)

3. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 16)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TEX - Kohei Arihara (No. 293 out of 300)

2. PHI - Chase Anderson (No. 208)

3. WSH - Joe Ross (No. 176)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TEX at LAA (72 degrees)

2. LAD at SEA (69 degrees)

3. MIL at SD (67 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TB at KC (50 degrees)

2. CWS at BOS (57 degrees)

3. STL at WSH (59 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

1. Los Angeles Angels (5.30 runs)

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (4.97)

3. San Francisco Giants (4.75)

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

1. Milwaukee Brewers (3.15 runs)

2. Seattle Mariners (3.55)

3. San Diego Padres (3.59)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

1. Rangers at Angels (9.67 runs)

2. Giants at Phillies (9.26)

3. White Sox at Red Sox (8.86)

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

1. Brewers at Padres (6.74 runs)

2. Rays at Royals (7.79)

3. Dodgers at Mariners (8.52)

Today's Biggest Line Movements

1. Los Angeles Angels -220 (opened -160)

2. Texas Rangers + 180 (opened + 140)

3. San Diego Padres -150 (opened -135)

Games With The Most Lopsided Action

1. Dodgers (78% Handle) vs Mariners (22% Handle)

2. Cardinals (66%) vs Nationals (34%)

3. Rangers (65%) vs Angels (35%)

Most Profitable Markets ATS this season

1. Red Sox Run Line (13-3, 11.45 Units, 54% ROI)

2. Dodgers MoneyLine (13-3, 7.80 Units, 24% ROI)

3. Mariners Run Line (12-4, 7.15 Units, 31% ROI)

Least Profitable Markets ATS this season

1. Rays Game Total Under (5-11, -7.60 Units, -43% ROI)

2. Giants Game Total Over (4-11, -7.55 Units, -48% ROI)

3. Giants Team Total Over (5-10, -7.32 Units, -39% ROI)

GAMES OF THE DAY

Kansas City Royals (8-8) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (9-5)

7.5 O/U | KC -122 | TB + 112

Danny Duffy (THE BAT’s No. 95 SP) vs. Josh Fleming (THE BAT’s No. 162 SP)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 20 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

50 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

14 mph wind in from LF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

 

QUICK-HITTING INSIGHTS

  • Duffy (93.3 mph) has added 1.8 mph to his fastball velocity this season
  • Duffy's fastball spin rate (2292 rpm) has jumped 119 rpm since 2020
  • Duffy has a large platoon split but is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against six opposite-handed hitters today
  • Danny Duffy's flyball nature (36% FB% since 2019) should play well in Kauffman Stadium (No. 1 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today
  • Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Danny Duffy (36% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today
  • The Tampa Bay Rays’ 25.7% projected K% (via THE BAT X) is the second-highest on today's slate of games
  • The Rays have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino, Brett Phillips)

Seattle Mariners (10-6) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (13-3)

8.5 O/U | SEA + 185 | LAD -200

Dustin May (THE BAT’s No. 32 SP) vs. Justus Sheffield (THE BAT’s No. 145 SP)

T-Mobile Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

69 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

4 mph across the field (No. 5 strongest winds today)

 

QUICK-HITTING INSIGHTS

  • Dustin May and his 1.74 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.63 thus far in 2021
  • THE BAT projects Justus Sheffield (4.33 projected ERA) to be much better going forward than his 4.91 ERA season-to-date indicates
  • Dustin May is throwing a fastball 18% more often this season (22% usage) than he did last season (4% usage)
  • Dustin May is throwing a cutter 11% less often this season (17% usage) than he did last season (28% usage)
  • T-Mobile Park is baseball's No. 6 best park for home runs, but Dustin May's groundball-heavy skillset (1% GB% since 2021) should help insulate him against the long-ball
  • The Mariners have four players (Ty France, Dylan Moore, Kyle Seager, Jose Marmolejos) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season
  • The Dodgers have four players (Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Justin Turner, Corey Seager) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season

BONUS INSIGHTS ACROSS MLB TODAY

  • Thus far in 2021, Dylan Bundy's fastball (91.6 mph) has been 2.1 mph faster than it was last season
  • Dylan Bundy has added 145 rpm of spin to his fastball (2567 rpm) in 2021
  • Joe Musgrove has been throwing a fastball (16% decrease) far less often in 2021 (14% usage) than he did in 2020 (30% usage)
  • Joe Musgrove has been throwing a cutter (19% increase) far more often in 2021 (25% usage) than he did in 2020 (6% usage)
  • Lucas Giolito is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which actually plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split
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