MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Josiah Gray (No. 54 out of 348)

2. COL - German Marquez (No. 56)

3. CWS - Dallas Keuchel (No. 106)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Connor Overton (No. 312 out of 348)

2. DET - Matt Manning (No. 223)

3. KC - Jackson Kowar (No. 202)

Today's Hottest Games

1. WSH at COL (85 degrees)

2. PIT at CIN (77 degrees)

3. KC at CLE (77 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. OAK at SEA (57 degrees)

2. CWS at DET (74 degrees)

3. KC at CLE (77 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O 115

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 5.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 4.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O 120

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 4.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -140

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 4.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Rockies

Projected: 11.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -105

·  Royals at Indians

Projected: 10.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  White Sox at Tigers

Projected: 9.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Athletics at Mariners

Projected: 8.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Pirates at Reds

Projected: 9.35 runs

·  White Sox at Tigers

Projected: 9.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Detroit Tigers (75-80) vs. Chicago White Sox (88-68)

O/U: 9.5 | DET 135 | CWS -155

Matt Manning (THE BAT's No. 223 SP) vs. Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 106 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

74 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

12 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  The Tigers (24.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Tigers and their 0.306 wOBA have been the #7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Tigers have four players (Miguel Cabrera, Eric Haase, Willi Castro, Jonathan Schoop) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The White Sox are the #3 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.3% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X projects the White Sox (#3 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.326 wOBA) thus far in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Tigers Moneyline has 13% of the cash, but the it's dropped from 150 to 135 resulting in reverse line movement

·  This game has the most lopsided Game Total today as 67% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The White Sox Moneyline has 87% of the cash and 59% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Detroit Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 75-76 resulting in 27.50 Units (17% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago White Sox has been their Team Total Under which is 76-64 generating 4.95 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Dallas Keuchel's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts ( 115/-150)

Colorado Rockies (71-84) vs. Washington Nationals (64-92)

O/U: 11.5 | COL -170 | WSH 155

German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 56 SP) vs. Josiah Gray (THE BAT's No. 54 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

85 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  German Marquez (94.3 mph) has lost 1.0 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  The spin on German Marquez's fastball (2079 rpm) has been nearly 100 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and German Marquez (51% GB% since 2019) is projected to face five of them today

·  Josiah Gray (49% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  The Rockies (25.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rockies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the #2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.315 wOBA going forward

·  The Rockies offense is quite fast; they have the #1 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story, Yonathan Daza, Garrett Hampson)

·  The Nationals are the #2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.8% according to THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Colorado Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 83-62 resulting in 13.80 Units (8% ROI)

·  The Washington Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 76-67 resulting in 2.85 Units (2% ROI)

·  German Marquez's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105) is the most popular prop for the game

Seattle Mariners (86-70) vs. Oakland Athletics (85-71)

O/U: 8.5 | SEA -110 | OAK -110

Chris Flexen (THE BAT's No. 155 SP) vs. Cole Irvin (THE BAT's No. 184 SP)

T-Mobile Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

57 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

10 mph out to LF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chris Flexen's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  Chris Flexen's 3.56 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.53 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Mariners are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.5% according to THE BAT X

·  The Oakland Athletics' 22.9 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the #3 least on today's slate of games

·  The Athletics have four players (Tony Kemp, Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, Josh Harrison) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Athletics Moneyline has 33% of the cash, but the it's dropped from -105 to -110 resulting in reverse line movement

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 67% of the cash and 52% of the bet tickets is on the Mariners

·  The most profitable market for the Seattle Mariners has been their Moneyline which is 85-69 generating 25.90 Units (15% ROI)

·  The Oakland Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 80-75 resulting in 7.75 Units (4% ROI)

·  Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 280/-480) is the most popular prop for the game

 

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