MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 4 out of 350)

2. LAD - Max Scherzer (No. 5)

3. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Logan Allen (No. 332 out of 350)

2. LAA - Jaime Barria (No. 278)

3. PIT - Bryse Wilson (No. 236)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at LAA - Brian Gorman (No. 13 out of 111)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SF at COL (92 degrees)

2. LAD at STL (85 degrees)

3. KC at BAL (80 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SEA at HOU (72 degrees)

2. DET at PIT (73 degrees)

3. PHI at MIL (74 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 6.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Rockies

Projected: 11.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -110

·  Blue Jays at Yankees

Projected: 11.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  Twins at Indians

Projected: 10.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Brewers

Projected: 7.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Reds at Cubs

Projected: 7.50 runs

·  Dodgers at Cardinals

Projected: 8.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Colorado Rockies (63-74) vs. San Francisco Giants (87-50)

O/U: 11.0 | COL + 155 | SF -170

Kyle Freeland (THE BAT's No. 79 SP) vs. Kevin Gausman (THE BAT's No. 29 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

92 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

4 mph in from CF (No. 4 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Freeland is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  While THE BAT projects Kevin Gausman's ERA going forward to be 3.75, his actual has been 2.52 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  The Rockies' 0.315 team wOBA makes them the No. 6 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rockies offense is quite fast; they have the No. 5 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson)

·  The Giants have six players (Alex Dickerson, Kris Bryant, Brandon Crawford, Darin Ruf, LaMonte Wade Jr., Brandon Belt) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 85% of the cash and 51% of the bet tickets is on the Giants

·  The most popular prop for the game is Kevin Gausman's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 130/-165)

St. Louis Cardinals (69-66) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (86-51)

O/U: 8.0 | STL + 180 | LAD -220

Miles Mikolas (THE BAT's No. 106 SP) vs. Max Scherzer (THE BAT's No. 5 SP)

Busch Stadium (No. 25 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

85 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Max Scherzer's skillset (36% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Busch Stadium (No. 3 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Max Scherzer (36% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Max Scherzer and his 2.40 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.15 thus far in 2021

·  THE BAT X views the Cardinals as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Cardinals offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong)

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.324 wOBA going forward

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Corey Seager)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Dodgers Moneyline has 91% of the bet tickets and 81% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 69% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 88% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets is on the UNDER

·  Max Scherzer's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)

Houston Astros (79-57) vs. Seattle Mariners (75-62)

O/U: 8.5 | HOU -220 | SEA + 180

Lance McCullers Jr. (THE BAT's No. 28 SP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (THE BAT's No. 91 SP)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Lance McCullers Jr. has been throwing a slider (28% increase) far more often in 2021 (28% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Lance McCullers Jr.'s curveball usage (22% in 2021, 38% in 2020) has decreased 16% this season

·  Lance McCullers Jr. (57% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  While THE BAT projects Lance McCullers Jr.'s ERA going forward to be 3.73, his actual has been 3.20 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Yusei Kikuchi (48% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Yusei Kikuchi is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his huge platoon split

·  The Astros (18.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Mariners (22.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Mariners have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.297 wOBA going forward

·  The Mariners offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Moore, Kyle Seager, Abraham Toro)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 405/-870) is the most popular prop for the game

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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