MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Clayton Kershaw (No. 8 out of 346)

2. MIA - Sandy Alcantara (No. 23)

3. BOS - Eduardo Rodriguez (No. 26)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 300 out of 346)

2. MIN - John Gant (No. 196)

3. NYM - Rich Hill (No. 182)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIN at NYY (85 degrees)

2. MIA at WSH (84 degrees)

3. STL at NYM (83 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SD at SF (58 degrees)

2. BOS at SEA (66 degrees)

3. TB at TOR (68 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 110

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.82 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Yankees

Projected: 12.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Rays at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.27 runs

·  Astros at Rangers

Projected: 9.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Red Sox at Mariners

Projected: 8.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Cardinals at Mets

Projected: 8.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Marlins at Nationals

Projected: 8.56 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (79-64) vs. Minnesota Twins (63-80)

O/U: 10.0 | NYY -190 | MIN + 165

Luis Gil (THE BAT's No. 148 SP) vs. John Gant (THE BAT's No. 196 SP)

Yankee Stadium (No. 11 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

85 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

10 mph out to RF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Gil is a fly ball pitcher (51% FB% since 2019) and Yankee Stadium is the No. 4 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, Luis Gil (51% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  So far in 2021, John Gant has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.78 ERA despite a 4.70 FIP

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.315 wOBA going forward

·  New York boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge)

·  The Twins (22.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Twins have four players (Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Run Line has 85% of the bet tickets on the Yankees, but 56% of the cash is on the Twins resulting in two-way action

·  The Yankees Moneyline has 65% of the bet tickets and 87% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The New York Yankees Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 80-58 resulting in + 17.19 Units (11% ROI)

·  The Minnesota Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 77-56 resulting in + 15.85 Units (10% ROI)

·  Aaron Judge's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 285/-495)

New York Mets (72-72) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (73-69)

O/U: 8.0 | NYM -105 | STL -115

Rich Hill (THE BAT's No. 182 SP) vs. Adam Wainwright (THE BAT's No. 91 SP)

Citi Field (No. 27 Runs | No. 15 HR | No. 4 K)

83 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

8 mph in from LF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Adam Wainwright has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.98 ERA is 0.57 points below his 3.55 FIP

·  The Mets are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Cardinals are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.7% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Cardinals and their 0.306 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Cardinals have four players (Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill, Edmundo Sosa, Tommy Edman) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at UNDER 8.5 Runs (-110), but has been bet down to UNDER 8.0 (-115)

·  The Cardinals Run Line opening price of + 1.5 (-190) has steamed 30 cents and is now + 1.5 (-220)

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 70% of the cash and 57% of the bet tickets is on the Cardinals

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 76-58 resulting in + 12.42 Units (8% ROI)

·  The New York Mets Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 75-57 resulting in + 11.75 Units (8% ROI)

·  Pete Alonso's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 335/-630)

Los Angeles Dodgers (91-53) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (47-96)

O/U: 8.0 | LAD -275 | ARI + 235

Clayton Kershaw (THE BAT's No. 8 SP) vs. Zac Gallen (THE BAT's No. 61 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 9 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

75 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

5 mph out to CF (No. 3 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Clayton Kershaw may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 64 pitches

·  This season, Clayton Kershaw's fastball (90.1 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Clayton Kershaw is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Zac Gallen has been throwing a fastball (15% increase) far more often in 2021 (54% usage) than he did in 2020 (39% usage)

·  Zac Gallen has been throwing a cutter (15% increase) far less often in 2021 (9% usage) than he did in 2020 (24% usage)

·  The Dodgers are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.8% according to THE BAT X

·  The Dodgers' 0.322 team wOBA makes them the No. 1 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Dodgers have four players (Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Corey Seager) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season the D-Backs Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 76-60 resulting in + 10.40 Units (7% ROI)

·  This season the Dodgers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 71-61 resulting in + 4.35 Units (3% ROI)

·  Zac Gallen's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-110)

 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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