MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  ( 


This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.



Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 7 out of 298)

2. SD - Blake Snell (No. 18)

3. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 28)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 288 out of 298)

2. MIN - Matt Shoemaker (No. 256)

3. TOR - Trent Thornton (No. 217)

Today's Hottest Games

1. TB at TOR (83 degrees)

2. BAL at MIN (80 degrees)

3. STL at CWS (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SEA at OAK (59 degrees)

2. COL at NYM (62 degrees)

3. PHI at MIA (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 5.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 4.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Rays at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

·  Orioles at Twins

Projected: 9.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

·  Indians at Tigers

Projected: 9.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Mets

Projected: 6.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -120

·  Phillies at Marlins

Projected: 6.98 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

·  Padres at Brewers

Projected: 7.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115


New York Mets (21-19) vs. Colorado Rockies (18-29)

O/U: 6.5 | NYM -145 | COL + 125

David Peterson (THE BAT's No. 64 SP) vs. Austin Gomber (THE BAT's No. 126 SP)

Citi Field (No. 30 Runs | No. 15 HR | No. 4 K)

62 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

11 mph out to LF (No. 1 strongest winds today)


·  David Peterson's sinker usage (35% in 2021, 24% in 2020) has increased 11% this season

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, David Peterson (48% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  David Peterson is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Austin Gomber's fastball (1986 rpm) has lost 165 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Austin Gomber (4.96 ERA) has been underperforming his 4.02 FIP by 0.95 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  The Mets (25.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Mets' 0.288 team wOBA makes them the No. 5 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rockies have four players (Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story, Yonathan Daza) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB


·  The opening Game Total has shown the most line movement today as it opened at UNDER 7.5 Runs (-115), but has been bet down to UNDER 6.5 (+ 100)

·  The New York Mets Moneyline is showing the most line movement today as it opened at -125 before dropping to -145

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 60% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 20% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 92% of the cash and 58% of the bet tickets on the Mets

·  This season the Mets Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 23-16 resulting in + 4.50 Units (10% ROI)

Minnesota Twins (17-29) vs. Baltimore Orioles (17-29)

O/U: 9.0 | MIN -110 | BAL -110

Matt Shoemaker (THE BAT's No. 256 SP) vs. John Means (THE BAT's No. 38 SP)

Target Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

80 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

10 mph across the field


·  This season, John Means' fastball (92.1 mph) has been 1.3 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  As an extreme flyball pitcher (42% FB% since 2019), John Means matches up well with Target Field (No. 9 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against Groundball hitters, and John Means (42% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 2 of them today

·  John Means and his 1.70 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.67 thus far in 2021

·  The Twins offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson)

·  The Orioles are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.8% according to THE BAT X


·  The most profitable market for the Minnesota Twins has been their Game Total Over which is 29-15 generating + 12.75 Units (25% ROI)

·  This season the Orioles Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 24-20 resulting in + 2.05 Units (4% ROI)

Oakland Athletics (28-20) vs. Seattle Mariners (21-26)

O/U: 7.5 | OAK -160 | SEA + 140

Frankie Montas (THE BAT's No. 129 SP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (THE BAT's No. 133 SP)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 28 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

59 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

9 mph out to RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)


·  Frankie Montas is likely a better pitcher than his 4.79 ERA indicates, given his 4.24 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Yusei Kikuchi's fastball spin rate (2327 rpm) has jumped 149 rpm since 2020

·  Yusei Kikuchi has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  THE BAT X views the Athletics as the No. 7 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Athletics have five players (Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, Seth Brown, Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  The Mariners (26.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Mariners have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.279 wOBA going forward


·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 8 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 65% of the bet tickets and 91% of the cash is on the Athletics

·  The most profitable market for the Oakland Athletics has been their Moneyline which is 28-20 generating + 6.80 Units (12% ROI)

·  This season the Mariners Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 26-21 resulting in + 2.10 Units (3% ROI)

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