MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 2 out of 298)

2. CIN - Sonny Gray (No. 16)

3. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 18)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 287 out of 298)

2. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 285)

3. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 264)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYM at ATL (77 degrees)

2. CWS at MIN (75 degrees)

3. NYY at TEX (70 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. DET at SEA (59 degrees)

2. WSH at CHC (59 degrees)

3. COL at SD (61 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 5.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 5.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 2.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -100

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -110

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Indians at Angels

Projected: 10.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Nationals at Cubs

Projected: 9.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Mets at Braves

Projected: 9.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Padres

Projected: 6.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  D-Backs at Dodgers

Projected: 7.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

·  Giants at Reds

Projected: 8.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Cincinnati Reds (19-19) vs. San Francisco Giants (24-16)

O/U: 8 | CIN -145 | SF + 125

Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 16 SP) vs. Logan Webb (THE BAT's No. 72 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

69 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

7 mph in from CF (No. 3 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Sonny Gray's groundball tendencies (52% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Logan Webb is throwing a fastball 19% less often this season (14% usage) than he did last season (33% usage)

·  Logan Webb is throwing a sinker 18% more often this season (31% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)

·  Logan Webb's groundball tendencies (53% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Logan Webb (4.86 ERA) has been underperforming his 3.88 FIP by 0.99 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  The Reds are the No. 2 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.2% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Reds as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Reds have three players (Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.310 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Giants offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they are tied for the second-most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has 52% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 37% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  The San Francisco Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 25-15 resulting in + 13.10 Units (27% ROI)

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 25-11 resulting in + 12.85 Units (31% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nick Castellanos's Total Bases Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-100/-130)

Minnesota Twins (13-25) vs. Chicago White Sox (24-15)

O/U: 9.5 | MIN -110 | CWS -110

J.A. Happ (THE BAT's No. 215 SP) vs. Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 123 SP)

Target Field (No. 18 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

75 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

9 mph in from RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, J.A. Happ's fastball (89.6 mph) has been 1.4 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  J.A. Happ's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face nine of them today

·  Dallas Keuchel has been throwing a cutter (13% increase) far less often in 2021 (18% usage) than he did in 2020 (31% usage)

·  Dallas Keuchel (58% GB% since 2019) projects to face three Flyball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Groundball pitchers perform worst against Flyball hitters

·  The Twins have four players (Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tied for third-most in MLB

·  The Chicago White Sox's 21.4 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the third-lowest number on today's slate of games

·  The White Sox (0.327 wOBA) have been the luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  Chicago boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, tied for the most in MLB (Nick Madrigal, Tim Anderson, Leury Garcia, Adam Eaton)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at OVER 8.5 Runs (-120), but has been bet up to OVER 9.5 (-105)

·  There is reverse line movement on the Twins Moneyline as it has dropped from -105 to -110 despite only getting 15% of the cash

·  The White Sox Moneyline has 85% of the cash and 54% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Minnesota Twins has been their Game Total Over which is 22-14 generating + 6.85 Units (16% ROI)

·  This season the White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 19-19 resulting in + 3.95 Units (9% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Josh Donaldson's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 385/-800)

Los Angeles Dodgers (22-18) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (18-23)

O/U: 7 | LAD -225 | ARI + 185

Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 18 SP) vs. Madison Bumgarner (THE BAT's No. 196 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 19 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

63 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

8 mph out to RF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Walker Buehler (94.6 mph) has lost 1.9 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  The spin rate on Walker Buehler's fastball (2641 rpm) has increased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Thus far in 2021, Madison Bumgarner's fastball (90.2 mph) has been 2.3 mph faster than it was last season

·  Madison Bumgarner's fastball spin rate (2504 rpm) has jumped 109 rpm since 2020

·  As an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% since 2019), Madison Bumgarner may not be a great fit for Dodger Stadium, the No. 8 HR stadium in baseball

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against Groundball hitters, and Madison Bumgarner (37% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 3 of them today

·  Despite a 3.47 FIP, Madison Bumgarner's unlucky ERA has been 0.65 points worse at 4.12

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers' 24.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the fifth-most on today's slate of games

·  The Dodgers have five players (Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, most in MLB

·  The D-Backs (24.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The D-Backs (0.312 wOBA) have been the seventh-luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Dodgers Run Line has steamed 10 cents as it opened at -1.5 (+ 110) and is now -1.5 (+ 100)

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 83% of the bet tickets and 74% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  This season the D-Backs Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 22-17 resulting in + 1.48 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Over which is 21-18 generating + 1.35 Units (3% ROI)

·  Walker Buehler's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115) is the most popular prop for the game

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