MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. SD - Dinelson Lamet (No. 32 out of 297)

2. CIN - Tyler Mahle (No. 58)

3. SF - Alex Wood (No. 60)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Jorge Lopez (No. 227 out of 297)

2. LAA - Jose Suarez (No. 202)

3. BOS - Martin Perez (No. 185)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at ARI (81 degrees)

2. LAA at HOU (72 degrees)

3. TEX at SF (66 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SD at COL (41 degrees)

2. CIN at PIT (56 degrees)

3. BOS at BAL (63 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.56 runs

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 5.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.98 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Angels at Astros

Projected: 10.27 runs

·  Padres at Rockies

Projected: 9.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

·  Red Sox at Orioles

Projected: 9.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rangers at Giants

Projected: 7.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -125

·  Reds at Pirates

Projected: 7.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Marlins at D-Backs

Projected: 9.20 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Colorado Rockies (12-22) vs. San Diego Padres (19-16)

O/U: 9.5 | COL + 160 | SD -180

Antonio Senzatela (THE BAT's No. 168 SP) vs. Dinelson Lamet (THE BAT's No. 32 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

41 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Antonio Senzatela has been throwing a slider (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (38% usage) than he did in 2020 (25% usage)

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Antonio Senzatela (53% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dinelson Lamet may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  Dinelson Lamet's 0.00 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.61 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Rockies are the No. 2 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Rockies have 3 players (Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson, Trevor Story) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Padres offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Fernando Tatis Jr., Victor Caratini, Jake Cronenworth)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 10 Runs, but is now 9.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  This season the Padres Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 20-15 resulting in + 3.65 Units (9% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Colorado Rockies has been their Team Total Over which is 16-13 generating + 0.41 Units (1% ROI)

·  Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 280/-485) is the most popular prop for the game

Arizona Diamondbacks (15-19) vs. Miami Marlins (15-18)

Luke Weaver (THE BAT's No. 183 SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

Chase Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

81 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

11 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Luke Weaver's fastball (92.6 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Luke Weaver has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 7 of today

·  The D-Backs (23.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the D-Backs and their 0.312 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The D-Backs have three players (Eduardo Escobar, Carson Kelly, Josh VanMeter) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Miami Marlins's 26.1 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 most on today's slate of games

·  The Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Lewis Brinson, Chad Wallach, Jordan Holloway)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.292 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Marlins offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar, Adam Duvall)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Run Line which is 19-14 generating + 3.95 Units (9% ROI)

·  This season the D-Backs Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 19-13 resulting in + 3.24 Units (8% ROI)

·  Luke Weaver's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 100/-130) is the most popular prop for the game

San Francisco Giants (20-14) vs. Texas Rangers (18-18)

O/U: 7 | SF -145 | TEX + 125

Alex Wood (THE BAT's No. 60 SP) vs. Kyle Gibson (THE BAT's No. 127 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

66 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

8 mph out to LF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alex Wood's huge platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face 7 of them today

·  While THE BAT projects Alex Wood's ERA going forward to be 3.85, his actual has been 1.96 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Kyle Gibson is throwing a cutter 15% more often this season (15% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Kyle Gibson (52% GB% since 2019) projects to face 2 Flyball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Groundball pitchers perform worst against Flyball hitters

·  The San Francisco Giants's 24.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 most on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X views the Giants as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Giants offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford, Mauricio Dubon, Wilmer Flores)

·  The Rangers (27.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rangers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Kyle Gibson, Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo)

·  THE BAT X views the Rangers as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Rangers have three players (Charlie Culberson, Nick Solak, Adolis Garcia) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the San Francisco Giants has been their Run Line which is 21-13 generating + 10.20 Units (24% ROI)

·  This season the Rangers Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 22-13 resulting in + 6.90 Units (16% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Alex Wood's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)

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