MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIA - Pablo Lopez (No. 31 out of 299)

2. CHC - Adbert Alzolay (No. 94)

3. BOS - Nick Pivetta (No. 114)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. SD - Ryan Weathers (No. 185 out of 299)

2. KC - Jackson Kowar (No. 172)

3. LAA - Dylan Bundy (No. 119)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at BOS (89 degrees)

2. KC at LAA (64 degrees)

3. CHC at SD (62 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CHC at SD (62 degrees)

2. KC at LAA (64 degrees)

3. MIA at BOS (89 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 5.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 110

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 4.87 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 4.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 4.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 4.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Red Sox

Projected: 10.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Royals at Angels

Projected: 9.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  Cubs at Padres

Projected: 8.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cubs at Padres

Projected: 8.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

·  Royals at Angels

Projected: 9.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  Marlins at Red Sox

Projected: 10.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Boston Red Sox (36-23) vs. Miami Marlins (25-33)

O/U: 9.5 | BOS -150 | MIA + 130

Nick Pivetta (THE BAT's No. 114 SP) vs. Pablo Lopez (THE BAT's No. 31 SP)

Fenway Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

89 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

12 mph out to CF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Pablo Lopez has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.82 ERA is 0.65 points below his 3.47 FIP

·  The Boston Red Sox's 23.8 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 least on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the Red Sox and their 0.323 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Red Sox have five players (J.D. Martinez, Bobby Dalbec, Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Marlins are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Marlins have three players (Jesus Aguilar, Jazz Chisholm, Adam Duvall) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at OVER 7.5 Runs (-120), but has been bet up to OVER 9.5 (-105)

·  There is reverse line movement as only 38% of the cash is on the Miami Marlins, but their Moneyline has dropped from + 140 to + 130

·  The Game Total has the most lopsided action today with 71% of the bet tickets and 61% of the cash on the OVER

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 68% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash on the Red Sox

·  The most profitable market for the Boston Red Sox has been their Run Line which is 31-21 generating + 11.35 Units (18% ROI)

·  This season the Marlins Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 28-21 resulting in + 4.65 Units (8% ROI)

·  Pablo Lopez's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150) is the most popular prop for the game

Los Angeles Angels (27-32) vs. Kansas City Royals (29-28)

O/U: 9 | LAA -155 | KC + 135

Dylan Bundy (THE BAT's No. 119 SP) vs. Jackson Kowar (THE BAT's No. 172 SP)

Angel Stadium (No. 15 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

64 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

9 mph out to CF (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dylan Bundy (91.0 mph) has added 1.5 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  The spin rate on Dylan Bundy's fastball (2548 rpm) has increased by 126 rpm in 2021

·  Jackson Kowar is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The Angels are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 23.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Royals are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 23.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Royals offense knows how to barrel a baseball: They have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Los Angeles Angels Moneyline as it opened at -135 before dropping to -155

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Run Line which is 32-24 generating + 7.60 Units (11% ROI)

·  The Los Angeles Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 33-26 resulting in + 3.55 Units (5% ROI)

·  Shohei Ohtani's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 240/-385) is the most popular prop for the game

San Diego Padres (36-25) vs. Chicago Cubs (33-26)

O/U: 7.5 | SD -130 | CHC + 110

Ryan Weathers (THE BAT's No. 185 SP) vs. Adbert Alzolay (THE BAT's No. 94 SP)

Petco Park (No. 25 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

62 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

9 mph out to RF (No. 0 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Ryan Weathers is projected to face 7 opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Ryan Weathers's 2.30 ERA is 2.58 points better than his 4.88 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Padres (22.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup in baseball today

·  The Padres offense knows how to hit the ball hard: They have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Manny Machado, Ha-seong Kim, Fernando Tatis Jr., Eric Hosmer)

·  The Cubs (25.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Cubs and their 0.313 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Padres Moneyline has 70% of the cash and 51% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 34-22 resulting in + 8.71 Units (13% ROI)

·  The San Diego Padres Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 36-25 resulting in + 0.25 Units (0% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 300/-530)

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