MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 15 out of 333)

2. LAD - Trevor Bauer (No. 18)

3. KC - Danny Duffy (No. 37)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Thomas Eshelman (No. 329 out of 333)

2. NYM - Jerad Eickhoff (No. 317)

3. WSH - Jefry Rodriguez (No. 285)

Today's Hottest Games

1. PHI at CIN (89 degrees)

2. KC at BOS (88 degrees)

3. LAA at NYY (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CHC at MIL (72 degrees)

2. BAL at HOU (72 degrees)

3. PIT at COL (73 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  New York Mets

Projected: 5.68 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.87 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Nationals

Projected: 11.22 runs

·  Royals at Red Sox

Projected: 11.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  Angels at Yankees

Projected: 10.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cubs at Brewers

Projected: 7.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Twins at White Sox

Projected: 8.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  D-Backs at Cardinals

Projected: 8.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (38-38) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (36-39)

O/U: 9.5 | CIN -160 | PHI + 140

Wade Miley (THE BAT's No. 132 SP) vs. Spencer Howard (THE BAT's No. 138 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

89 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's best park for home runs, but Wade Miley's ground ball-heavy skillset (51% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against fly ball hitters, and Wade Miley (51% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  So far in 2021, Wade Miley has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 2.85 ERA despite a 3.39 FIP

·  Spencer Howard may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 75 pitches

·  Spencer Howard's fastball (2179 rpm) has lost 166 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  The Reds have four players (Tyler Naquin, Nick Castellanos, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Phillies' 0.304 team wOBA makes them the No. 5 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 43-30 resulting in + 9.90 Units (12% ROI)

·  The Philadelphia Phillies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 39-35 resulting in + 0.25 Units (0% ROI)

·  Bryce Harper's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 355/-700) is the most popular prop for the game

Boston Red Sox (47-31) vs. Kansas City Royals (33-43)

O/U: 11.0 | BOS -155 | KC + 135

Garrett Richards (THE BAT's No. 198 SP) vs. Danny Duffy (THE BAT's No. 37 SP)

Fenway Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

88 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

10 mph out to CF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Garrett Richards (93.6 mph) has lost 1.0 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Garrett Richards is throwing a fastball 12% more often this season (59% usage) than he did last season (47% usage)

·  Garrett Richards has been throwing a slider (11% increase) far less often in 2021 (26% usage) than he did in 2020 (37% usage)

·  Danny Duffy may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 62 pitches

·  Danny Duffy's fastball (93.2 mph) is 1.7 mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Danny Duffy's fastball spin rate (2279 rpm) has jumped 106 rpm since 2020

·  Danny Duffy is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Danny Duffy and his 1.81 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.66 thus far in 2021

·  The Red Sox (0.324 wOBA) have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Red Sox offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Bobby Dalbec, Xander Bogaerts)

·  Kansas City boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at OVER 10.0 Runs (-110), but has been bet up to OVER 11.0 (-105)

·  The most profitable market for the Boston Red Sox has been their Run Line which is 45-33 generating + 11.45 Units (12% ROI)

·  The Kansas City Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 40-33 resulting in + 4.87 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Garrett Richards's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)

St. Louis Cardinals (37-41) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (22-57)

O/U: 9.0 | STL -160 | ARI + 140

Wade LeBlanc (THE BAT's No. 210 SP) vs. Jake Faria (THE BAT's No. 264 SP)

Busch Stadium (No. 25 Runs | No. 24 HR | No. 27 K)

84 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

6 mph out to LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Wade LeBlanc may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 84 pitches

·  Jake Faria may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 82 pitches

·  Jake Faria's skillset (30% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Busch Stadium (No. 6 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that fly ball pitchers are most effective against ground ball hitters, Jake Faria (30% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Cardinals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.291 wOBA going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 41-31 resulting in + 6.62 Units (8% ROI)

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 43-35 resulting in + 4.40 Units (5% ROI)

·  Paul Goldschmidt's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 260/-430) is the most popular prop for the game

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