MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 295)

2. SD - Yu Darvish (No. 20)

3. ATL - Ian Anderson (No. 21)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brett Anderson (No. 216 out of 295)

2. ATL - Kyle Muller (No. 211)

3. BAL - Keegan Akin (No. 205)

Today's Hottest Games

1. HOU at BAL (83 degrees)

2. ATL at NYM (82 degrees)

3. MIL at ARI (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CIN at MIN (64 degrees)

2. CLE at CHC (65 degrees)

3. LAD at SD (68 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 6.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 4.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 2.14 runs

·  New York Mets

Projected: 2.81 runs

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 3.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Astros at Orioles

Projected: 11.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Reds at Twins

Projected: 9.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Brewers at D-Backs

Projected: 9.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Mets

Projected: 5.74 runs

·  Dodgers at Padres

Projected: 7.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

·  Indians at Cubs

Projected: 8.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles (23-48) vs. Houston Astros (43-28)

O/U: 10.5 | BAL + 140 | HOU -160

Keegan Akin (THE BAT's No. 205 SP) vs. Jake Odorizzi (THE BAT's No. 93 SP)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

83 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

10 mph out to CF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Keegan Akin may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 3 best home run park in baseball (Oriole Park at Camden Yards) given his fly ball tendencies (35% FB% since 2019)

·  The Baltimore Orioles' 22.9 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the fourth lowest on today's slate of games

·  The Orioles have five players (Pedro Severino, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Astros are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 19.0% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Astros as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  Houston boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher xwOBA this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total OVER opened at 10.0 Runs (-115), but is now OVER 10.5 (-110) and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  This season the Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 42-27 resulting in + 12.70 Units (17% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Baltimore Orioles has been their Team Total Under which is 36-31 generating + 1.82 Units (2% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jake Odorizzi's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+ 130/-170)

Chicago Cubs (40-32) vs. Cleveland Indians (39-30)

O/U: 7 | CHC -155 | CLE + 135

Adbert Alzolay (THE BAT's No. 122 SP) vs. Aaron Civale (THE BAT's No. 155 SP)

Wrigley Field (No. 7 Runs | No. 17 HR | No. 20 K)

65 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

12 mph in from LF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Adbert Alzolay may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  Aaron Civale's fastball usage (25% in 2021, 9% in 2020) has increased 16% this season

·  Aaron Civale has been throwing a sinker (12% increase) far less often in 2021 (10% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  So far in 2021, Aaron Civale has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.48 ERA despite a 4.40 FIP

·  The Cubs are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.1% according to THE BAT X

·  The Cubs' 0.304 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Cleveland Indians' 25.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 most on today's slate of games

·  The Indians have four hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+, according to THE BAT X (Aaron Civale, Rene Rivera, Bradley Zimmer, Bobby Bradley)

·  The Indians' 0.299 team wOBA makes them the No. 4 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  Cleveland boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago Cubs has been their Team Total Under which is 42-27 generating + 11.47 Units (14% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Game Total Over which is 39-27 generating + 9.95 Units (14% ROI)

·  Jose Ramirez's Total Bases Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+ 125/-160)

Minnesota Twins (30-41) vs. Cincinnati Reds (35-35)

O/U: 9.5 | MIN + 100 | CIN -120

J.A. Happ (THE BAT's No. 182 SP) vs. Tyler Mahle (THE BAT's No. 49 SP)

Target Field (No. 10 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

64 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

10 mph out to RF (No. 3 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, J.A. Happ's fastball (90.2 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  J.A. Happ has been throwing a fastball (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (56% usage) than he did in 2020 (44% usage)

·  J.A. Happ has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Twins have four players (Trevor Larnach, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Cincinnati Reds' 23.0 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the fifth least on today's slate of games

·  Cincinnati boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season, the Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 43-23 resulting in + 17.65 Units (23% ROI)

·  The Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 41-25 resulting in + 13.40 Units (18% ROI)

·  Tyler Mahle's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+ 100) is the most popular prop for the game

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