MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. TB - Tyler Glasnow (No. 13 out of 296)

2. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 22)

3. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 33)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 274 out of 296)

2. MIA - Braxton Garrett (No. 266)

3. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 256)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TOR at BOS - Roberto Ortiz (No. 12 out of 110)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SD at COL (97 degrees)

2. DET at KC (93 degrees)

3. MIA at STL (89 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ARI at SF (60 degrees)

2. LAA at OAK (62 degrees)

3. TOR at BOS (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 6.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 105

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Rockies

Projected: 12.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -110

·  Blue Jays at Red Sox

Projected: 10.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  Phillies at Dodgers

Projected: 10.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  D-Backs at Giants

Projected: 7.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Angels at Athletics

Projected: 8.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Rays at White Sox

Projected: 8.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Cleveland Indians (34-28) vs. Baltimore Orioles (22-42)

O/U: | CLE | BAL

Jean Carlos Mejia (THE BAT's No. 64 SP) vs. Dean Kremer (THE BAT's No. 203 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

71 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

8 mph in from CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jean Carlos Mejia may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 65 pitches

·  Jean Carlos Mejia is projected to face six same-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large platoon split

·  Jean Carlos Mejia has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.15 ERA despite a 2.28 FIP

·  Given that fly ball pitchers are least effective against ground ball hitters, Dean Kremer (42% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with four ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dean Kremer has a large reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  The projected lineup for the Indians holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Austin Hedges, Bobby Bradley, Bradley Zimmer. THE BAT projects all for a Austin Hedges, Bobby Bradley, Bradley Zimmer+ underlying K%

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.296 wOBA going forward

·  The Orioles are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.1% according to THE BAT X

·  Baltimore boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Pedro Severino, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This season the Indians Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 34-26 resulting in + 6.10 Units (9% ROI)

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 32-28 resulting in + 1.45 Units (2% ROI)

San Francisco Giants (40-25) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (20-46)

O/U: 8.0 | SF -180 | ARI + 160

Alex Wood (THE BAT's No. 75 SP) vs. Matt Peacock (THE BAT's No. 183 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

60 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

13 mph out to CF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alex Wood's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face 7 of them today

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform worse against Flyball hitters, and Matt Peacock (62% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  Matt Peacock is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Giants are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.9% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.313 wOBA have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Giants have 3 players (Brandon Crawford, Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The D-Backs (21.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The San Francisco Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 42-23 resulting in + 23.50 Units (29% ROI)

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 35-30 resulting in + 1.80 Units (2% ROI)

·  Brandon Belt's Total Bases Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+ 115/-155)

Los Angeles Dodgers (39-26) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (32-31)

O/U: 9.5 | LAD -160 | PHI + 140

Tony Gonsolin (THE BAT's No. 92 SP) vs. Spencer Howard (THE BAT's No. 122 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 13 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

84 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

6 mph out to RF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tony Gonsolin has a large reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  Spencer Howard's spin rate (2250 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Spencer Howard is projected to face 6 opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  Spencer Howard has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.61 ERA despite a 3.27 FIP

·  Los Angeles boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Albert Pujols, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor)

·  Philadelphia boasts 3 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  There is reverse line movement on the Phillies Moneyline as it has dropped from + 155 to + 140 despite only getting 38% of the cash

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 76% of the bet tickets and 59% of the cash on the OVER

·  The Dodgers Run Line has 65% of the bet tickets and 56% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 65% of the bet tickets and 56% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 35-28 resulting in + 5.00 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Bryce Harper's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 310/-560)

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NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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