MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 4 out of 338)

2. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 17)

3. SF - Kevin Gausman (No. 23)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 334 out of 338)

2. CLE - Logan Allen (No. 332)

3. PIT - Chase De Jong (No. 331)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CWS at MIN (94 degrees)

2. ATL at PIT (88 degrees)

3. CIN at KC (87 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. STL at SF (60 degrees)

2. WSH at SD (69 degrees)

3. DET at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 6.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 5.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 5.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.47 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Cubs

Projected: 12.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -120

·  Reds at Royals

Projected: 10.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  White Sox at Twins

Projected: 9.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Mets

Projected: 7.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Dodgers at Marlins

Projected: 7.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  Cardinals at Giants

Projected: 7.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

San Francisco Giants (53-30) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (41-44)

O/U: 7.5 | SF -225 | STL + 185

Kevin Gausman (THE BAT's No. 23 SP) vs. Kwang-hyun Kim (THE BAT's No. 188 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

60 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

12 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kevin Gausman's 1.68 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.53 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  This season, Kwang Hyun Kim's fastball (88.4 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Kwang Hyun Kim's huge platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The San Francisco Giants's 27.1 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X views the Giants as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Giants have three players (Steven Duggar, Brandon Crawford, Wilmer Flores) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Cardinals have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.293 wOBA going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 7.0 Runs and is now 7.5 Runs

·  The Giants Moneyline has steamed 45 cents as it opened at -180 and is now -225

·  The San Francisco Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 53-30 resulting in + 28.30 Units (28% ROI)

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 45-34 resulting in + 7.41 Units (8% ROI)

·  Kevin Gausman's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 120/-155)

Miami Marlins (35-47) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (53-31)

O/U: 7.0 | MIA + 140 | LAD -160

Trevor Rogers (THE BAT's No. 49 SP) vs. Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 31 SP)

Marlins Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Trevor Rogers's fastball (93.9 mph) has been 1.1 mph faster than it was last season

·  Trevor Rogers is throwing a changeup 10% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (18% usage)

·  Trevor Rogers is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Trevor Rogers and his 2.24 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.81 thus far in 2021

·  Walker Buehler (94.8 mph) has lost 1.7 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  The projected lineup for the Marlins holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Jazz Chisholm, Trevor Rogers, Jorge Alfaro. THE BAT projects all for a Jazz Chisholm, Trevor Rogers, Jorge Alfaro+ underlying K%

·  The Marlins (0.292 wOBA) have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Marlins offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jazz Chisholm, Jon Berti, Adam Duvall, Starling Marte)

·  The Dodgers (22.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.325 wOBA going forward

·  The Dodgers have three players (Chris Taylor, Albert Pujols, Justin Turner) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has 74% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 22% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  The Dodgers Moneyline has 66% of the bet tickets and 62% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Game Total Under which is 44-34 generating + 6.05 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Max Muncy's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 390/-810)

Minnesota Twins (34-48) vs. Chicago White Sox (49-34)

O/U: 10.0 | MIN -105 | CWS -115

Bailey Ober (THE BAT's No. 74 SP) vs. Dylan Cease (THE BAT's No. 96 SP)

Target Field (No. 10 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

94 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dylan Cease (95.5 mph) has lost 1.4 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Dylan Cease is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The Twins are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.5% according to THE BAT X

·  The Twins have four players (Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz, Trevor Larnach, Josh Donaldson) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The White Sox (0.326 wOBA) have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 10.0 Runs

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 32% of the bet tickets are on the OVER, but 68% of the cash is on the UNDER

·  The Moneyline has 55% of the bet tickets on the White Sox, but 55% of the cash is on the Twins resulting in two-way action

·  This season the Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 51-27 resulting in + 21.35 Units (24% ROI)

·  The Chicago White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 41-41 resulting in + 5.20 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 235/-375)

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