MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. COL - German Marquez (No. 19 out of 339)

2. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 23)

3. NYM - Marcus Stroman (No. 59)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TOR - Thomas Hatch (No. 259 out of 339)

2. SEA - Darren McCaughan (No. 250)

3. DET - Matt Manning (No. 233)

Today's Hottest Games

1. DET at MIN (91 degrees)

2. CWS at KC (88 degrees)

3. ATL at NYM (88 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. COL at LAA (74 degrees)

2. HOU at SEA (77 degrees)

3. TOR at BOS (81 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 3.25 runs

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.40 runs

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Red Sox

Projected: 12.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  Tigers at Twins

Projected: 10.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Nationals at Phillies

Projected: 9.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Mets

Projected: 6.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  Rockies at Angels

Projected: 7.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  Astros at Mariners

Projected: 8.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Chicago Cubs (49-51) vs. Cincinnati Reds (51-48)

O/U: 8.5 | CHC -135 | CIN + 115

Kyle Hendricks (THE BAT's No. 67 SP) vs. Wade Miley (THE BAT's No. 122 SP)

Wrigley Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 17 HR | No. 20 K)

83 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Hendricks' reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  Kyle Hendricks has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.61 ERA is 1.04 points below his 4.65 FIP

·  Wade Miley (51% GB% since 2019) projects to face four Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  The Cubs (27.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Strikeouts against Chicago may be easy to come by today, as four players (Javier Baez, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Marisnick, Patrick Wisdom) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Cubs have four players (Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Cubs Moneyline has 66% of the cash and 56% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 59-38 resulting in + 15.71 Units (14% ROI)

·  This season the Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 52-44 resulting in + 3.75 Units (3% ROI)

·  Kyle Hendricks' Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+ 120/-160)

Kansas City Royals (42-55) vs. Chicago White Sox (59-40)

O/U: 9.5 | KC + 105 | CWS -125

Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 85 SP) vs. Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 96 SP)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 17 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

88 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Mike Minor is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  So far in 2021, Dallas Keuchel has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 4.22 ERA despite a 4.75 FIP

·  The Royals are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.6% according to THE BAT X

·  The Royals offense is quite fast; they have the No. 3 most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier)

·  The White Sox (0.328 wOBA) have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 10.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  The OVER has 76% of the bet tickets and 90% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 76% of the cash and 62% of the bet tickets is on the White Sox

·  This season the White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 52-46 resulting in + 11.55 Units (10% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Kansas City Royals has been their Team Total Under which is 49-44 generating + 1.91 Units (2% ROI)

·  Mike Minor's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+ 110)

Los Angeles Angels (49-49) vs. Colorado Rockies (43-56)

O/U: 8.0 | LAA -150 | COL + 130

Shohei Ohtani (THE BAT's No. 23 SP) vs. German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 19 SP)

Angel Stadium (No. 12 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

74 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

8 mph out to RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  German Marquez (94.3 mph) has lost 1.0 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  German Marquez's ground ball tendencies (51% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Angel Stadium (No. 5 best HR park in baseball) today

·  The Angels offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Juan Lagares, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Jared Walsh)

·  The Rockies (26.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rockies' 0.305 team wOBA makes them the No. 5 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rockies offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson, Trevor Story)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 58% of the bet tickets are on the Angels, but 68% of the cash is on the Rockies

·  The Colorado Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 56-41 resulting in + 9.95 Units (9% ROI)

·  This season the Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 55-42 resulting in + 8.35 Units (8% ROI)

·  Shohei Ohtani's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/-105)

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