MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. SF - Kevin Gausman (No. 19 out of 344)

2. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 25)

3. SD - Yu Darvish (No. 30)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Spenser Watkins (No. 342 out of 344)

2. PIT - Chase De Jong (No. 337)

3. NYM - Jerad Eickhoff (No. 336)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at WSH (85 degrees)

2. NYM at CIN (85 degrees)

3. TEX at DET (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAA at OAK (61 degrees)

2. BAL at TB (72 degrees)

3. CLE at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 6.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  New York Mets

Projected: 6.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.51 runs

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 3.81 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Reds

Projected: 12.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  Red Sox at Blue Jays

Projected: 11.33 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

·  Marlins at Nationals

Projected: 9.58 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at White Sox

Projected: 7.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

·  Angels at Athletics

Projected: 7.98 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Cubs at Cardinals

Projected: 8.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

Chicago White Sox (56-36) vs. Minnesota Twins (39-53)

O/U: 7 | CWS -230 | MIN + 190

Lance Lynn (THE BAT's No. 31 SP) vs. Griffin Jax (THE BAT's No. 238 SP)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

80 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

6 mph in from LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Lance Lynn's spin rate (2407 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Lance Lynn is throwing a cutter 11% more often this season (32% usage) than he did last season (21% usage)

·  Lance Lynn's 2.08 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.76 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The White Sox (0.330 wOBA) have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Twins have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Ryan Jeffers, Miguel Sano, Trevor Larnach)

·  Minnesota boasts six active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 most in MLB (Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Josh Donaldson)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Chicago White Sox Moneyline opening price of -200 has steamed 30 cents and is now -230

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 71% of the cash and 61% of the bet tickets on the White Sox

·  Lance Lynn's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)

Tampa Bay Rays (55-38) vs. Baltimore Orioles (30-62)

O/U: 9 | TB -260 | BAL + 220

Ryan Yarbrough (THE BAT's No. 93 SP) vs. Spenser Watkins (THE BAT's No. 342 SP)

Tropicana Field (No. 28 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Ryan Yarbrough is throwing a sinker 11% less often this season (12% usage) than he did last season (23% usage)

·  Spenser Watkins (41% FB% since 2019) projects to face three Fly ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Fly ball pitchers perform best against Fly ball hitters

·  Spenser Watkins' large reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face eight of them today

·  So far in 2021, Spenser Watkins has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 1.74 ERA despite a 5.04 FIP

·  The Rays offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Brett Phillips, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe)

·  The Orioles have four players (Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Pedro Severino, Trey Mancini) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Rays was -230, but is now -260 after it steamed 30 cents

·  The Rays Moneyline has 71% of the bet tickets and 78% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 75% of the bet tickets and 54% of the cash is on the Rays

·  Ryan Yarbrough's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+ 115)

Arizona Diamondbacks (27-68) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (36-57)

O/U: 9.5 | ARI -115 | PIT -105

Caleb Smith (THE BAT's No. 218 SP) vs. Chase De Jong (THE BAT's No. 337 SP)

Chase Field (No. 14 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Caleb Smith's fly ball nature (48% FB% since 2019) should play well in Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Chase De Jong's fly ball nature (40% FB% since 2019) should play well in Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Chase De Jong (40% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  The D-Backs' 0.295 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Pirates (21.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Pittsburgh boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Gregory Polanco, Ben Gamel, Jacob Stallings, Bryan Reynolds)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Pirates was + 110, but is now -105 after it steamed 15 cents

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 57% of the bet tickets are on the D-Backs, but 75% of the cash is on the Pirates

·  Caleb Smith's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 105/-135)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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