MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 15 out of 340)

2. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 19)

3. CIN - Luis Castillo (No. 23)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 325 out of 340)

2. CHC - Alec Mills (No. 226)

3. MIA - Zach Thompson (No. 210)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYY at KC (92 degrees)

2. CIN at CLE (89 degrees)

3. CWS at MIN (85 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIA at SD (70 degrees)

2. MIL at CHC (78 degrees)

3. CWS at MIN (85 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 6.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 2.81 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -120

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 4.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 4.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Royals

Projected: 10.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Brewers at Cubs

Projected: 10.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  White Sox at Twins

Projected: 9.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Padres

Projected: 6.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Reds at Indians

Projected: 9.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  White Sox at Twins

Projected: 9.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (54-55) vs. Cincinnati Reds (61-51)

O/U: 9.5 | CLE + 155 | CIN -170

Sam Hentges (THE BAT's No. 325 SP) vs. Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 23 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 7 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

89 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

12 mph out to RF (No. 2 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Sam Hentges may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches

·  Luis Castillo has added 130 rpm of spin to his fastball (2318 rpm) in 2021

·  THE BAT's 3.44 projected ERA for Luis Castillo is quite a bit better than his 4.09 ERA this season

·  The Cleveland Indians' 23.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 least on today's slate of games

·  Strikeouts against Cleveland may be easy to come by today, as three players (Austin Hedges, Bradley Zimmer, Franmil Reyes) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Indians' 0.301 team wOBA makes them the No. 6 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Indians offense is quite fast; they have the No. 6 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Harold Ramirez, Myles Straw, Amed Rosario)

·  The Reds are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.0% according to THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.331 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Reds offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Run Line for the Cincinnati Reds was -1.5 (-110), but is now -1.5 (-120) after it steamed 10 cents

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 94% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash is on the Reds

·  This season the Reds Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 62-45 resulting in + 10.18 Units (8% ROI)

·  The Cleveland Indians Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 58-47 resulting in + 6.70 Units (6% ROI)

·  Nick Castellanos's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 255/-420) is the most popular prop for the game

Chicago Cubs (52-61) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (66-46)

O/U: 9.0 | CHC + 170 | MIL -200

Alec Mills (THE BAT's No. 226 SP) vs. Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 15 SP)

Wrigley Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 17 HR | No. 20 K)

78 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

11 mph out to CF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alec Mills (88.6 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Alec Mills' fastball usage (12% in 2021, 26% in 2020) has decreased 14% this season

·  Alec Mills has been throwing a sinker (16% increase) far more often in 2021 (49% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Freddy Peralta is a fly ball pitcher (42% FB% since 2019) and Wrigley Field is the No. 10 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Freddy Peralta (42% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Freddy Peralta and his 2.21 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.30 thus far in 2021

·  The Cubs are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 28.9% according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Cubs as the No. 4 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Brewers are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 24.5% according to THE BAT X

·  The Brewers' 0.307 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Brewers have four players (Tyrone Taylor, Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 76% of the bet tickets and 63% of the cash on the Brewers

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 66-44 resulting in + 15.57 Units (12% ROI)

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 61-51 resulting in + 12.75 Units (9% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Freddy Peralta's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)

San Diego Padres (64-49) vs. Miami Marlins (47-65)

O/U: 7.5 | SD -250 | MIA + 210

Joe Musgrove (THE BAT's No. 19 SP) vs. Zach Thompson (THE BAT's No. 210 SP)

Petco Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

70 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

6 mph in from LF (No. 0 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Joe Musgrove has been throwing a fastball (13% increase) far less often in 2021 (17% usage) than he did in 2020 (30% usage)

·  Joe Musgrove's cutter usage (19% in 2021, 6% in 2020) has increased 13% this season

·  Joe Musgrove's 2.87 ERA is 0.67 points better than his 3.54 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Padres (22.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Padres offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Victor Caratini, Ha-seong Kim, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado)

·  The Marlins (26.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The projected lineup for the Marlins holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Zach Thompson, Lewis Brinson, Jorge Alfaro. THE BAT projects all for a Zach Thompson, Lewis Brinson, Jorge Alfaro+ underlying K%

·  THE BAT X views the Marlins as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Padres Run Line has steamed 10 cents as it opened at -1.5 (-105) and is now -1.5 (-115)

·  The Padres Moneyline has 65% of the bet tickets and 94% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 69% of the bet tickets and 57% of the cash on the Padres

·  The most profitable market for the San Diego Padres has been their Game Total Over which is 61-49 generating + 7.80 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Team Total Under which is 60-48 generating + 5.08 Units (4% ROI)

·  Manny Machado's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 300/-525)

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PRO TOOLS

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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