MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16216522

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 344)

2. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 4)

3. CIN - Luis Castillo (No. 20)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Chris Ellis (No. 326 out of 344)

2. STL - Jon Lester (No. 325)

3. ARI - Tyler Gilbert (No. 309)

Today's Hottest Games

1. PHI at WSH (84 degrees)

2. MIN at DET (82 degrees)

3. STL at CIN (80 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIL at SF (59 degrees)

2. HOU at SEA (64 degrees)

3. COL at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 6.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.58 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Orioles at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.54 runs

·  Braves at Dodgers

Projected: 10.30 runs

·  Yankees at Angels

Projected: 10.02 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rockies at Rangers

Projected: 7.84 runs

·  Brewers at Giants

Projected: 8.19 runs

·  Phillies at Nationals

Projected: 8.58 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (71-61) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (66-63)

O/U: | CIN | STL

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 20 SP) vs. Jon Lester (THE BAT's No. 325 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

80 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

5 mph out to LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Castillo has added 131 rpm of spin to his fastball (2319 rpm) in 2021

·  Luis Castillo's ability to keep the ball on the ground (56% GB% since 2019) should help him in Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Luis Castillo (56% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  THE BAT's 3.53 projected ERA for Luis Castillo is quite a bit better than his 4.29 ERA this season

·  The Reds (25.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X views the Cardinals as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Cardinals offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong, Dylan Carlson)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  Nick Castellanos' Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 265/-445) is the most popular prop for the game

Washington Nationals (55-74) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (66-64)

O/U: | WSH | PHI

Josiah Gray (THE BAT's No. 35 SP) vs. Zack Wheeler (THE BAT's No. 4 SP)

Nationals Park (No. 12 Runs | No. 12 HR | No. 14 K)

84 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

4 mph out to LF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Josiah Gray (53% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  So far in 2021, Josiah Gray has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.75 ERA despite a 6.37 FIP

·  Zack Wheeler has been throwing a slider (10% increase) far more often in 2021 (26% usage) than he did in 2020 (16% usage)

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Zack Wheeler (49% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with five Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  According to THE BAT X, the Nationals and their 0.324 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Philadelphia Phillies' 22.3 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 least on today's slate of games

·  The Phillies offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Odubel Herrera, Brad Miller)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  Zack Wheeler's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)

Arizona Diamondbacks (44-88) vs. San Diego Padres (69-62)

O/U: | ARI | SD

Tyler Gilbert (THE BAT's No. 309 SP) vs. Chris Paddack (THE BAT's No. 83 SP)

Chase Field (No. 11 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Gilbert's 2.38 ERA is 1.30 points better than his 3.69 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  Chris Paddack may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 63 pitches

·  Chris Paddack's fastball (94.2 mph) is nearly a full mph faster than it was in 2020

·  Chris Paddack is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  The Padres are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.6% according to THE BAT X

·  The Padres offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Victor Caratini, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Tommy Pham, Fernando Tatis Jr.)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most popular prop for the game is Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 200/-295)

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