MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 28 out of 338)

2. NYY - Jordan Montgomery (No. 40)

3. BOS - Nathan Eovaldi (No. 44)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 280 out of 338)

2. TEX - Kolby Allard (No. 212)

3. KC - Daniel Lynch (No. 206)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at BOS - Jeremie Rehak (No. 17 out of 111)

Today's Hottest Games

1. NYY at ATL (88 degrees)

2. COL at CHC (84 degrees)

3. ARI at PIT (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SEA at OAK (57 degrees)

2. KC at HOU (72 degrees)

3. TEX at BOS (76 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 3.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 4.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 105

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 4.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Braves

Projected: 10.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -125

·  Rangers at Red Sox

Projected: 10.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  D-Backs at Pirates

Projected: 9.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mariners at Athletics

Projected: 8.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

·  White Sox at Blue Jays

Projected: 8.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

·  Rockies at Cubs

Projected: 8.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Boston Red Sox (70-55) vs. Texas Rangers (43-80)

O/U: 9.5 | BOS -290 | TEX + 245

Nathan Eovaldi (THE BAT's No. 44 SP) vs. Kolby Allard (THE BAT's No. 212 SP)

Jeremie Rehak (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 17 in MLB)

Fenway Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

76 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

9 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Nathan Eovaldi is throwing a slider 13% more often this season (13% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Nathan Eovaldi has been throwing a cutter (17% increase) far less often in 2021 (14% usage) than he did in 2020 (31% usage)

·  Despite a 2.92 FIP, Nathan Eovaldi's unlucky ERA has been 0.99 points worse at 3.91

·  The Red Sox (22.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Boston boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Kyle Schwarber, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Bobby Dalbec)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Rangers Moneyline as it's dropped from + 260 to + 245 despite only getting 26% of the cash

·  The Red Sox Run Line has 88% of the cash and 56% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Red Sox Moneyline has 74% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nathan Eovaldi's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+ 120/-155)

Houston Astros (73-51) vs. Kansas City Royals (55-68)

O/U: 9.0 | HOU -245 | KC + 205

Zack Greinke (THE BAT's No. 79 SP) vs. Daniel Lynch (THE BAT's No. 206 SP)

Minute Maid Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zack Greinke (88.3 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  The spin on Zack Greinke's fastball (2224 rpm) has been nearly 100 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a sinker 13% less often this season (6% usage) than he did last season (19% usage)

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a changeup 13% more often this season (22% usage) than he did last season (9% usage)

·  So far in 2021, Zack Greinke has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.43 ERA despite a 4.39 FIP

·  Daniel Lynch has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Astros (19.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.337 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Royals' 0.299 team wOBA makes them the No. 6 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  Kansas City boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier, Michael A. Taylor)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Astros Run Line opening price of -1.5 (-115) has steamed 10 cents and is now -1.5 (-125)

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 74% of the bet tickets and 90% of the cash is on the Astros

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 84% of the bet tickets and 80% of the cash on the Astros

·  Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 370/-745) is the most popular prop for the game

Oakland Athletics (70-55) vs. Seattle Mariners (67-58)

O/U: 9.0 | OAK -130 | SEA + 110

Paul Blackburn (THE BAT's No. 164 SP) vs. Marco Gonzales (THE BAT's No. 116 SP)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 27 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

57 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

9 mph out to RF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Paul Blackburn (54% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Marco Gonzales is throwing a cutter 10% less often this season (14% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Marco Gonzales has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.10 ERA is 0.96 points below his 5.07 FIP

·  The Athletics (21.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Athletics have four players (Sean Murphy, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Seth Brown) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Seattle Mariners' 22.2 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 least on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X projects the Mariners (No. 5 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.296 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  Seattle boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Kyle Seager, Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy, Mitch Haniger)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Oakland Athletics Moneyline as it opened at -110 before dropping to -130

·  The Game Total has moved toward the OVER after the Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 68% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 13% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The most popular prop for the game is Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 320/-585)

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