MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 5 out of 339)

2. SF - Kevin Gausman (No. 27)

3. OAK - Frankie Montas (No. 72)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 312 out of 339)

2. MIA - Braxton Garrett (No. 277)

3. SD - Ryan Weathers (No. 228)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SD at COL (91 degrees)

2. CLE at MIN (84 degrees)

3. HOU at KC (84 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. NYM at SF (63 degrees)

2. ATL at MIA (72 degrees)

3. BAL at TB (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 6.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Rockies

Projected: 12.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 12.5 O -115

·  Indians at Twins

Projected: 10.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  Pirates at Dodgers

Projected: 10.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Marlins

Projected: 8.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

·  Orioles at Rays

Projected: 8.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

·  Mets at Giants

Projected: 8.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (64-55) vs. Chicago Cubs (52-68)

O/U: 9.5 | CIN -220 | CHC + 180

Wade Miley (THE BAT's No. 138 SP) vs. Justin Steele (THE BAT's No. 158 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

80 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

4 mph in from CF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Justin Steele may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 84 pitches

·  Justin Steele's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  Justin Steele's 2.95 ERA is 2.33 points better than his 5.27 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Reds offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin)

·  The Chicago Cubs' 27.3 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  The Cubs have four hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Patrick Wisdom, Robinson Chirinos, Ian Happ, Justin Steele)

·  THE BAT X views the Cubs as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9 Runs, but is now 9.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  There is reverse line movement as only 31% of the cash is on the Chicago Cubs, but their Moneyline has dropped from + 195 to + 180

·  The Game Total has 53% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 23% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 68-47 resulting in + 13.72 Units (10% ROI)

·  This season the Reds Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 66-48 resulting in + 10.54 Units (8% ROI)

·  Nick Castellanos' Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 335/-635) is the most popular prop for the game

Chicago White Sox (68-50) vs. Oakland Athletics (68-50)

O/U: 9.0 | CWS -105 | OAK -115

Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 96 SP) vs. Frankie Montas (THE BAT's No. 72 SP)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 7 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

74 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Guaranteed Rate Field is baseball's No. 3 best park for home runs, but Dallas Keuchel's ground ball-heavy skillset (56% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Dallas Keuchel (56% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Ground ball pitchers perform worst against Fly ball hitters

·  Dallas Keuchel has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.51 ERA is 0.73 points below his 5.25 FIP

·  The White Sox are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Athletics (21.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Athletics have four players (Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Seth Brown, Sean Murphy) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  This season the Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 62-56 resulting in + 7.05 Units (5% ROI)

·  The Chicago White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 59-58 resulting in + 5.55 Units (4% ROI)

·  Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 265/-440) is the most popular prop for the game

Colorado Rockies (52-66) vs. San Diego Padres (67-53)

O/U: 12.5 | COL + 110 | SD -130

Antonio Senzatela (THE BAT's No. 119 SP) vs. Ryan Weathers (THE BAT's No. 228 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

91 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

4 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Antonio Senzatela (53% GB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  Antonio Senzatela has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.71 ERA despite a 3.79 FIP

·  Ryan Weathers' large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Rockies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.313 wOBA going forward

·  The Rockies have three players (Garrett Hampson, Yonathan Daza, Trevor Story) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Padres (22.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Padres offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Victor Caratini, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Ha-seong Kim, Tommy Pham)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Game Total has shown the most line movement today as it opened at OVER 12.0 Runs (-110), but has been bet up to OVER 12.5 (-115)

·  The Rockies Run Line has steamed 10 cents as it opened at + 1.5 (-120) and is now + 1.5 (-130)

·  The most profitable market for the San Diego Padres has been their Game Total Over which is 65-52 generating + 8.50 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Colorado Rockies has been their Game Total Under which is 64-52 generating + 5.90 Units (5% ROI)

·  Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 170/-240)

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