MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Josiah Gray (No. 36 out of 340)

2. TEX - Dane Dunning (No. 74)

3. NYM - Tylor Megill (No. 75)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. MIA - Jordan Holloway (No. 282 out of 340)

2. CLE - Eli Morgan (No. 280)

3. ARI - Taylor Widener (No. 232)

Today's Hottest Games

1. BAL at NYY (79 degrees)

2. SF at ARI (78 degrees)

3. PHI at WSH (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CLE at TOR (68 degrees)

2. LAA at TEX (70 degrees)

3. SEA at TB (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 5.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.21 runs

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -140

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Orioles at Yankees

Projected: 10.82 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Indians at Blue Jays

Projected: 9.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Giants at D-Backs

Projected: 9.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Marlins

Projected: 7.55 runs

·  Angels at Rangers

Projected: 7.97 runs

·  Pirates at Brewers

Projected: 8.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Toronto Blue Jays (54-48) vs. Cleveland Indians (51-51)

O/U: 9.0 | TOR -270 | CLE + 230

Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 89 SP) vs. Eli Morgan (THE BAT's No. 280 SP)

Rogers Centre

68 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Robbie Ray (94.6 mph) has added 1.1 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Robbie Ray's spin rate (2265 rpm) has decreased by 155 rpm in 2021

·  Robbie Ray is throwing a fastball 12% more often this season (61% usage) than he did last season (49% usage)

·  Robbie Ray has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against nine opposite-handed hitters today

·  Robbie Ray has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.04 ERA is 0.96 points below his 4.00 FIP

·  Eli Morgan's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Blue Jays are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.7% according to THE BAT X

·  The Blue Jays offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 6 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez)

·  The Indians (21.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Indians' 0.302 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Indians have three players (Amed Rosario, Harold Ramirez, Myles Straw) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  This season the Indians Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 56-43 resulting in + 9.25 Units (8% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Toronto Blue Jays has been their Run Line which is 57-45 generating + 3.75 Units (3% ROI)

·  Vladimir Guerrero Jr's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 210/-315) is the most popular prop for the game

Tampa Bay Rays (64-42) vs. Seattle Mariners (56-50)

O/U: 9.0 | TB -200 | SEA + 170

Michael Wacha (THE BAT's No. 187 SP) vs. Chris Flexen (THE BAT's No. 193 SP)

Tropicana Field (No. 29 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Michael Wacha has a large reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Chris Flexen has a large reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  Chris Flexen and his 3.81 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.67 thus far in 2021

·  The Tampa Bay Rays' 23.0 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 least on today's slate of games

·  The Rays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.314 wOBA going forward

·  The Rays have four players (Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena, Nelson Cruz, Yandy Diaz) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Mariners (22.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Mariners have four players (Mitch Haniger, Tom Murphy, Luis Torrens, Kyle Seager) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline as it opened at -160 before dropping to -200

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The Rays Run Line has 76% of the bet tickets and 88% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The OVER has 75% of the bet tickets and 82% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The Seattle Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 56-50 resulting in + 18.20 Units (16% ROI)

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 61-45 resulting in + 14.85 Units (11% ROI)

·  Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 270/-460)

Arizona Diamondbacks (33-73) vs. San Francisco Giants (66-39)

O/U: 9.5 | ARI + 165 | SF -190

Taylor Widener (THE BAT's No. 232 SP) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (THE BAT's No. 79 SP)

Chase Field (No. 11 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Taylor Widener's fly ball nature (43% FB% since 2019) should play well in Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Fly ball hitters, Taylor Widener (43% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Anthony DeSclafani's 3.10 ERA is 0.55 points better than his 3.65 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The San Francisco Giants' 26.0 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  The Giants (0.328 wOBA) have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Giants have four players (Wilmer Flores, Brandon Crawford, Steven Duggar, Austin Slater) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Giants was -165, but is now -190 after it steamed 25 cents

·  The Giants Run Line has 96% of the bet tickets and 51% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The most profitable market for the San Francisco Giants has been their Run Line which is 66-39 generating + 32.65 Units (25% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been their Game Total Over which is 58-47 generating + 6.75 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Anthony DeSclafani's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 125/-160)

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