MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Monday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 4 out of 300)

2. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 18)

3. MIN - Jose Berrios (No. 19)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 284 out of 300)

2. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 255)

3. CHC - Zach Davies (No. 217)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SEA at HOU (77 degrees)

2. LAA at TEX (74 degrees)

3. PHI at STL (74 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. KC at DET (49 degrees)

2. COL at SF (51 degrees)

3. MIN at CLE (56 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.91 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -186

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 5.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -186

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -186

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -186

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 132

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Mariners at Astros

Projected: 11.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  Yankees at Orioles

Projected: 10.77 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  Angels at Rangers

Projected: 10.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Brewers

Projected: 6.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  Royals at Tigers

Projected: 8.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Rockies at Giants

Projected: 8.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (9-11) vs. Minnesota Twins (7-13)

7.5 O/U | CLE + 105 | MIN -125

Zach Plesac (THE BAT's No. 110 SP) vs. Jose Berrios (THE BAT's No. 19 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 3 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

56 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jose Berrios' fastball spin rate (2293 rpm) has jumped 101 rpm since 2020

·  Berrios has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 3.00 ERA despite a 2.25 FIP

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.283 wOBA going forward

·  The Twins have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 7 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.305 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have three players (Jordan Luplow, Eddie Rosario, Cesar Hernandez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 most in MLB

·  The Twins have three players (Luis Arraez, Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 most in MLB

·  The Twins (21.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Indians (21.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jose Berrios' Strikeouts Prop which is currently at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+ 105)

·  Sharp action has been on the Game Total OVER as it opened at Over/Under 7.0 Runs (-125/+ 105) and was bet up to Over/Under 7.5 Runs (-115/-105)

·  On the year, Cleveland Indians’ Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 14-6 to generate + 7.18 Units (30% ROI)

·  On the year, Minnesota Twins’ Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 10-6 to generate + 3.93 Units (23% ROI)

·  The Minnesota Twins Run Line is getting lopsided action as it has 65% of the bet tickets and 77% of the cash thus far

Milwaukee Brewers (13-8) vs. Miami Marlins (9-12)

6.5 O/U | MIL -170 | MIA + 155

Corbin Burnes (THE BAT's No. 4 SP) vs. Trevor Rogers (THE BAT's No. 51 SP)

American Family Field (No. 18 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

60 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

10 mph in from CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Trevor Rogers (94.3 mph) has added 1.5 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Rogers is throwing a fastball 10% more often this season (62% usage) than he did last season (52% usage)

·  Corbin Burnes is throwing a sinker 11% less often this season (13% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Burnes is throwing a cutter 15% more often this season (50% usage) than he did last season (35% usage)

·  Corbin Burnes and his 0.37 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 2.89 thus far in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.291 wOBA have been the No. 10 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 8 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.292 wOBA going forward

·  The Brewers have 3 players (Billy McKinney, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 most in MLB

·  The Marlins have 3 players (Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm, Adam Duvall) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 most in MLB

·  The Marlins (26.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Brewers (25.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Jazz Chisholm, Lewis Brinson, Chad Wallach, Trevor Rogers)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 77% of the bet tickets are on the Brewers, but 64% of the cash is on the Marlins

·  On the year, Milwaukee Brewers’ Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 12-7 to generate + 4.25 Units (18% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Trevor Rogers's Earned Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-140/+ 105)

Los Angeles Dodgers (15-7) vs. Cincinnati Reds (9-12)

7.0 O/U | LAD -190 | CIN + 165

Julio Urias (THE BAT's No. 56 SP) vs. Tyler Mahle (THE BAT's No. 36 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 11 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

61 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

11 mph out to RF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Mahle's fastball spin rate (2490 rpm) has jumped 101 rpm since 2020

·  Julio Urias and his 2.81 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.79 thus far in 2021

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.332 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Reds have 5 players (Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tops in MLB

·  The Dodgers have six players (Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Will Smith, Chris Taylor, Corey Seager) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tops in MLB

·  Urias has a large reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 79% of the bet tickets and 63% of the cash thus far is on the Los Angeles Dodgers

·  On the year, Cincinnati Reds’ Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and have covered 14-6 to generate + 7.40 Units (32% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Julio Urias's Earned Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-130/-100)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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