MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 301)

2. TB - Tyler Glasnow (No. 6)

3. LAD - Clayton Kershaw (No. 10)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brett Anderson (No. 232 out of 301)

2. CLE - Logan Allen (No. 229)

3. WSH - Erick Fedde (No. 221)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. LAA at HOU - Brian O'Nora (No. 23 out of 117)

2. SD at LAD - Todd Tichenor (No. 33)

Today's Least Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at SF - Shane Livensparger (No. 20 out of 117)

2. NYY at CLE - Andy Fletcher (No. 35)

3. SEA at BOS - Brian Knight (No. 38)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAA at HOU (73 degrees)

2. TOR at TB (72 degrees)

3. ARI at ATL (66 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIA at SF (50 degrees)

2. PIT at MIN (53 degrees)

3. SEA at BOS (53 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.14 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -133

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 6.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -140

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 5.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -144

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 2.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -133

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.54 runs

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 121

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Rockies

Projected: 11.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -115

·  Mariners at Red Sox

Projected: 11.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Angels at Astros

Projected: 10.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Cubs

Projected: 3.54 runs

·  Nationals at Mets

Projected: 7.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

·  Marlins at Giants

Projected: 7.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Tampa Bay Rays (10-9) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (8-10)

 

7.0 O/U | TB -160 | TOR 140

 

Tyler Glasnow (THE BAT's No. 6 SP) vs. Steven Matz (THE BAT's No. 91 SP)

Tropicana Field (No. 27 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

 

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Glasnow is throwing a slider 29% more often this season (29% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Tyler Glasnow is throwing a curveball 23% less often this season (12% usage) than he did last season (35% usage)

·  Tyler Glasnow and his 0.73 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.05 thus far in 2021

·  Steven Matz and his 1.47 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.05 thus far in 2021

·  The Blue Jays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.294 wOBA going forward

·  According to THE BAT X, the Rays and their 0.313 wOBA have been the 10th luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Rays have 4 players (Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino, Willy Adames, Austin Meadows) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #2 most in MLB

·  The Blue Jays have 4 players (Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #4 most in MLB

 

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  Will there be a score in the first inning is the most popular prop for the game and is currently set at Yes ( 135)/ No (-160)

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Run Line currently set at -1.5 ( 135) is getting 85% of the bet tickets and 52% of the total cash wagered and is the No. 1 most lopsided Run Line on the slate today

·  For the season, the Tampa Bay Rays’ Game Total OVER has been their most profitable market and has a record of 13-6 generating 6.25 Units (31% ROI)

 

 

 

 

 

Cleveland Indians (8-9) vs. New York Yankees (7-11)

8.5 O/U | CLE 125 | NYY -145

Logan Allen (THE BAT's No. 229 SP) vs. Jordan Montgomery (THE BAT's No. 43 SP)

Andy Fletcher (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 35 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. 3 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

56 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

6 mph across the field

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jordan Montgomery is throwing a cutter 14% more often this season (22% usage) than he did last season (8% usage)

·  THE BAT projects Jordan Montgomery (3.70 projected ERA) to be much better going forward than his 4.24 ERA season-to-date indicates

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the #1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.288 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians (.292 wOBA) have been the #4 unluckiest offense in baseball so far this year, according to THE BAT X

·  The Indians have 3 players (Cesar Hernandez, Jordan Luplow, Eddie Rosario) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #7 most in MLB

·  The Indians (21.2 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  We’re seeing heavy action on the Game Total OVER which is getting 80% of the bet tickets and 86% of the total cash wagered thus far

·  On the year, New York Yankee’s Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 12-6 to generate 5.95 Units (30% ROI)

·  On the year, Cleveland Indians Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and have covered 12-5 to generate 6.20 Units (29% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jordan Montgomery's Earned Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs ( 115/-150)

 

 

 

 

Houston Astros (8-10) vs. Los Angeles Angels (9-8)

8.0 O/U | HOU -145 | LAA 125

Zack Greinke (THE BAT's No. 90 SP) vs. Andrew Heaney (THE BAT's No. 62 SP)

Brian O'Nora (Extreme Pitchers Umpire - No. 23 in MLB)

Minute Maid Park (No. 24 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

73 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

14 mph out to CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Andrew Heaney (91.7 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a sinker 14% less often this season (5% usage) than he did last season (19% usage)

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a curveball 13% more often this season (21% usage) than he did last season (8% usage)

·  Zack Greinke is throwing a changeup 15% more often this season (24% usage) than he did last season (9% usage)

·  Zack Greinke has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.81 ERA is 1.64 points below his 4.45 FIP

·  According to THE BAT X, the Angels and their 0.328 wOBA have been the #5 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Angels have 4 players (Mike Trout, Jared Walsh, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #2 most in MLB

·  The Astros have 3 players (Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #4 most in MLB

·  The Astros (18.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #1 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Angels (21.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most popular bet today has been the Houston Astros Moneyline as they’ve getting 77% of the bet tickets and 52% of the total cash wagered

·  The Houston Astros Moneyline opened at -130 and has been bet down to -145 as early sharp action is steaming the line

·  The most profitable betting market for the Houston Astros this season has been their Game Total Over as they are 10-7 generating 2.50 Units (13% ROI)

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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