MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16697499

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 5 out of 344)

2. BOS - Chris Sale (No. 6)

3. SF - Logan Webb (No. 15)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 286 out of 344)

2. ARI - Madison Bumgarner (No. 269)

3. CLE - Eli Morgan (No. 251)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. DET at TB - Jerry Meals (No. 15 out of 111)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SEA at KC (84 degrees)

2. LAD at CIN (83 degrees)

3. SD at STL (81 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ATL at SF (56 degrees)

2. BAL at BOS (65 degrees)

3. OAK at LAA (68 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 115

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Baltimore Orioles

Projected: 3.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.69 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Indians at Yankees

Projected: 10.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Twins at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.18 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Dodgers at Reds

Projected: 10.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Mets

Projected: 7.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

·  Pirates at Marlins

Projected: 7.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Braves at Giants

Projected: 8.11 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cincinnati Reds (76-71) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (94-53)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN + 150 | LAD -165

Luis Castillo (THE BAT's No. 23 SP) vs. Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 24 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

83 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

3 mph in from CF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Luis Castillo's fastball spin rate (2323 rpm) has jumped 135 rpm since 2020

·  Luis Castillo's ground ball tendencies (57% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park (No. 2 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Luis Castillo (57% GB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  THE BAT's 3.61 projected ERA for Luis Castillo is quite a bit better than his 4.24 ERA this season

·  Walker Buehler's fastball velocity (94.7 mph) has been down 1.7 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  Walker Buehler is throwing a fastball 12% less often this season (44% usage) than he did last season (56% usage)

·  Cincinnati boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Jonathan India, Tyler Naquin)

·  The Dodgers' 0.324 team wOBA makes them the No. 1 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Dodgers have four players (Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Corey Seager) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 68% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Under which is 72-62 generating + 4.15 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cincinnati Reds has been their Game Total Over which is 72-64 generating + 1.90 Units (1% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Mookie Betts' Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 395/-835)

Milwaukee Brewers (89-57) vs. Chicago Cubs (66-81)

O/U: 9.0 | MIL -235 | CHC + 195

Adrian Houser (THE BAT's No. 105 SP) vs. Zach Davies (THE BAT's No. 228 SP)

American Family Field (No. 11 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

75 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Adrian Houser's ability to keep the ball on the ground (58% GB% since 2019) should help him in American Family Field (No. 10 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Adrian Houser (58% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  Adrian Houser has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 3.25 ERA is 1.09 points below his 4.34 FIP

·  Zach Davies is throwing a sinker 13% more often this season (52% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)

·  The Chicago Cubs' 27.4 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 most on today's slate of games

·  Strikeouts against Chicago may be easy to come by today, as three players (Ian Happ, Zach Davies, Patrick Wisdom) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Cubs (0.307 wOBA) have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Brewers Run Line has 75% of the bet tickets and 52% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 67% of the cash and 59% of the bet tickets on the Brewers

·  This season the Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 79-65 resulting in + 17.00 Units (10% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Chicago Cubs has been their Team Total Under which is 79-61 generating + 8.74 Units (5% ROI)

·  Adrian Houser's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+ 100)

San Francisco Giants (95-52) vs. Atlanta Braves (76-68)

O/U: 8.0 | SF -160 | ATL + 140

Logan Webb (THE BAT's No. 15 SP) vs. Ian Anderson (THE BAT's No. 49 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 18 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

56 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

10 mph out to LF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Logan Webb has been throwing a fastball (23% increase) far less often in 2021 (10% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Logan Webb is throwing a sinker 24% more often this season (37% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)

·  Logan Webb is throwing a slider 12% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (16% usage)

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Logan Webb (56% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Logan Webb's 2.80 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.49 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Ian Anderson (52% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  San Francisco boasts six active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 most in MLB (Mike Yastrzemski, Kris Bryant, LaMonte Wade Jr., Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Darin Ruf)

·  The Braves (25.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Braves have five players (Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 68% of the bet tickets and 94% of the cash on the Giants

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 66% of the bet tickets are on the Giants, but 68% of the cash is on the Braves

·  This season the Giants Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 87-56 resulting in + 34.60 Units (19% ROI)

·  Logan Webb's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110)

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