MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 14 out of 345)

2. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 25)

3. LAA - Shohei Ohtani (No. 30)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Sean Nolin (No. 324 out of 345)

2. DET - Tyler Alexander (No. 301)

3. CIN - Vladimir Gutierrez (No. 271)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. ATL at COL - Ed Hickox (No. 24 out of 111)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CWS at KC (81 degrees)

2. SEA at ARI (78 degrees)

3. PIT at CHC (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAD at SF (59 degrees)

2. OAK at TOR (67 degrees)

3. CLE at BOS (67 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 6.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 120

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 3.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Rockies

Projected: 11.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -110

·  Tigers at Reds

Projected: 10.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  White Sox at Royals

Projected: 9.66 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Marlins

Projected: 7.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Cardinals at Brewers

Projected: 7.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

·  Rangers at Angels

Projected: 8.15 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (77-56) vs. Baltimore Orioles (41-91)

O/U: 9.0 | NYY -240 | BAL + 200

Nestor Cortes (THE BAT's No. 134 SP) vs. John Means (THE BAT's No. 59 SP)

Yankee Stadium (No. 10 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

72 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

6 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Nestor Cortes is a fly ball pitcher (41% FB% since 2019) and Yankee Stadium is the No. 4 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  John Means (92.1 mph) has lost 1.2 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  As an extreme fly ball pitcher (43% FB% since 2019), John Means may not be a great fit for the No. 4 HR in baseball, Yankee Stadium, today

·  John Means' 3.46 ERA is 1.14 points better than his 4.60 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Yankees' 0.318 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  New York boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge)

·  The Orioles offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Pedro Severino, Ramon Urias, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 85% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 15% of the cash is on the OVER

·  This game has the most lopsided Run Line today as 80% of the bet tickets and 77% of the cash is on the Yankees

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 86% of the bet tickets and 79% of the cash is on the Yankees

·  John Means' Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+ 110)

Tampa Bay Rays (84-50) vs. Minnesota Twins (58-75)

O/U: 9.0 | TB -210 | MIN + 175

Michael Wacha (THE BAT's No. 164 SP) vs. Randy Dobnak (THE BAT's No. 158 SP)

Tropicana Field (No. 30 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)

72 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Randy Dobnak's sinker usage (57% in 2021, 44% in 2020) has increased 13% this season

·  Randy Dobnak is throwing a curveball 10% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (10% usage)

·  Randy Dobnak has been throwing a changeup (13% increase) far less often in 2021 (3% usage) than he did in 2020 (16% usage)

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Randy Dobnak (57% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Randy Dobnak is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  The Rays have three players (Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline is showing the most line movement today as it opened at -165 before dropping to -210

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 73% of the cash and 63% of the bet tickets on the Rays

·  The OVER has 69% of the bet tickets and 52% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  Josh Donaldson's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 265/-445)

Cincinnati Reds (72-63) vs. Detroit Tigers (63-72)

O/U: 9.0 | CIN -180 | DET + 160

Vladimir Gutierrez (THE BAT's No. 271 SP) vs. Tyler Alexander (THE BAT's No. 301 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

75 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

5 mph in from LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tyler Alexander may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 75 pitches

·  Tyler Alexander has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  Tyler Alexander's 4.34 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 5.14 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Reds have three players (Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Tigers are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 29.6% according to THE BAT X

·  The Tigers have four hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Eric Haase, Derek Hill, Niko Goodrum, Tyler Alexander)

·  The Tigers (0.304 wOBA) have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Tigers offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Willi Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Cabrera, Eric Haase)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The Reds Moneyline has 72% of the cash and 57% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Nick Castellanos' Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 280/-485)

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