MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 4 out of 347)

2. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 10)

3. BOS - Nathan Eovaldi (No. 23)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 277 out of 347)

2. STL - J.A. Happ (No. 249)

3. BAL - Alex Wells (No. 234)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. WSH at CIN - Ryan Additon (No. 25 out of 111)

2. CWS at CLE - Alex Tosi (No. 30)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. PIT at PHI - James Hoye (No. 19 out of 111)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAD at ARI (81 degrees)

2. SF at COL (77 degrees)

3. MIA at TB (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TOR at MIN (57 degrees)

2. HOU at OAK (63 degrees)

3. PIT at PHI (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 6.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 105

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 3.45 runs

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Rockies

Projected: 11.70 runs

·  Yankees at Red Sox

Projected: 10.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  Dodgers at D-Backs

Projected: 10.04 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Cubs

Projected: 7.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -115

·  White Sox at Indians

Projected: 8.21 runs

·  Marlins at Rays

Projected: 8.35 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles (49-104) vs. Texas Rangers (55-98)

O/U: 9.5 | BAL -110 | TEX -110

Alex Wells (THE BAT's No. 234 SP) vs. Spencer Howard (THE BAT's No. 161 SP)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

67 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

4 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alexander Wells is a fly ball pitcher (43 percent FB percentage since 2019) and Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the No. 2 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Alexander Wells (43 percent FB percentage since 2019) projects to face four Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  Spencer Howard's spin rate (2144 rpm) has decreased by 201 rpm in 2021

·  Spencer Howard is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The Baltimore Orioles' 25.3 projected K percent (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 most on today's slate of games

·  The Orioles have four players (Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

·  The projected lineup for the Rangers holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Adolis Garcia, DJ Peters, Leody Taveras. 

·  The Rangers' 0.290 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The UNDER has 73 percent of the cash and 56 percent of the bet tickets resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The Baltimore Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 80-67 resulting in + 5.03 Units (3 percent ROI)

·  Alexander Wells' Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120) is the most popular prop for the game

Boston Red Sox (88-65) vs. New York Yankees (86-67)

O/U: 9.0 | BOS + 100 | NYY -120

Nathan Eovaldi (THE BAT's No. 23 SP) vs. Gerrit Cole (THE BAT's No. 4 SP)

Fenway Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 16 HR | No. 18 K)

71 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Nathan Eovaldi is throwing a slider 13 percent more often this season (13 percent usage) than he did last season (0 percent usage)

·  Nathan Eovaldi's cutter usage (13 percent in 2021, 31 percent in 2020) has decreased 18 percent this season

·  Nathan Eovaldi is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Nathan Eovaldi (3.58 ERA) has been underperforming his 2.76 FIP by 0.82 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  Gerrit Cole (97.0 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Gerrit Cole is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  The Red Sox are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K percent of 21.3 percent according to THE BAT X

·  The Red Sox have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.334 wOBA going forward

·  The Red Sox have five players (Hunter Renfroe, J.D. Martinez, Kyle Schwarber, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers) with a Barrel percent in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  THE BAT X projects the Yankees (No. 5 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.318 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Yankees have four players (Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge) with a Barrel percent in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 70 percent of the cash and 58 percent of the bet tickets is on the Yankees

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 85-63 generating + 16.13 Units (9 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Boston Red Sox has been their Moneyline which is 86-60 generating + 13.55 Units (7 percent ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Gerrit Cole's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150/+ 115)

Arizona Diamondbacks (49-104) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (98-55)

O/U: 10.0 | ARI + 185 | LAD -225

Humberto Castellanos (THE BAT's No. 233 SP) vs. Tony Gonsolin (THE BAT's No. 92 SP)

Chase Field (No. 13 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

81 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

4 mph out to LF (No. 8 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  So far in 2021, Humberto Castellanos has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 4.11 ERA despite a 4.89 FIP

·  Tony Gonsolin (93.0 mph) has lost 1.6 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Tony Gonsolin's spin rate (2373 rpm) has decreased by 116 rpm in 2021

·  THE BAT X projects the Dodgers (No. 2 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.323 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Dodgers have four players (Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Corey Seager) with a Barrel percent in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Dodgers Run Line has 87 percent of the bet tickets and 98 percent of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 83 percent of the bet tickets and 98 percent of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 80-61 resulting in + 13.25 Units (8 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Under which is 75-64 generating + 4.95 Units (3 percent ROI)

·  Mookie Betts' Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 350/-675)

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