MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16483717

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 13 out of 340)

2. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 20)

3. HOU - Framber Valdez (No. 21)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Chris Ellis (No. 321 out of 340)

2. STL - Jon Lester (No. 316)

3. ARI - Madison Bumgarner (No. 253)

Today's Hottest Games

1. SD at LAD (80 degrees)

2. CIN at STL (79 degrees)

3. MIA at ATL (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. TEX at OAK (59 degrees)

2. ARI at SEA (69 degrees)

3. COL at PHI (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 6.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 5.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Orioles

Projected: 10.68 runs

·  Royals at Twins

Projected: 10.18 runs

·  Brewers at Indians

Projected: 9.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Yankees at Mets

Projected: 7.50 runs

·  Marlins at Braves

Projected: 7.74 runs

·  Angels at Astros

Projected: 7.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Detroit Tigers (66-75) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (88-52)

O/U: 9.0 | DET + 155 | TB -170

Matthew Boyd (THE BAT's No. 94 SP) vs. Michael Wacha (THE BAT's No. 162 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

73 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

5 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Matthew Boyd has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against six opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Detroit Tigers' 27.7 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  The Tigers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Derek Hill, Eric Haase, Niko Goodrum)

·  THE BAT X views the Tigers as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Tigers offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Miguel Cabrera, Eric Haase, Willi Castro, Jonathan Schoop)

·  The Rays (21.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Rays offense is quite fast; they have the No. 6 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Manuel Margot, Wander Franco, Kevin Kiermaier)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The Rays Moneyline has 82% of the bet tickets and 96% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Tampa Bay Rays has been their Run Line which is 81-56 generating + 22.40 Units (13% ROI)

·  This season the Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 66-72 resulting in + 17.05 Units (12% ROI)

·  Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 325/-600) is the most popular prop for the game

Cleveland Indians (69-69) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (86-55)

O/U: 9.5 | CLE + 135 | MIL -155

Eli Morgan (THE BAT's No. 227 SP) vs. Adrian Houser (THE BAT's No. 109 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 7 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

71 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

3 mph out to CF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Eli Morgan has a large reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face seven of today

·  Adrian Houser has been throwing a sinker (10% increase) far more often in 2021 (54% usage) than he did in 2020 (44% usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Adrian Houser (58% GB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  Adrian Houser's 3.41 ERA is 0.94 points better than his 4.35 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The Indians are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.8% according to THE BAT X

·  The projected lineup for the Indians holds four extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Franmil Reyes, Bradley Zimmer, Austin Hedges, Bobby Bradley. THE BAT projects all for a Franmil Reyes, Bradley Zimmer, Austin Hedges, Bobby Bradley+ underlying K%

·  The Indians have four players (Harold Ramirez, Bradley Zimmer, Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Brewers Moneyline has 89% of the bet tickets and 81% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Run Line which is 76-63 generating + 16.30 Units (9% ROI)

·  The Cleveland Indians Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 75-62 resulting in + 10.85 Units (6% ROI)

·  Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 420/-925)

Los Angeles Dodgers (88-53) vs. San Diego Padres (74-65)

O/U: 8.0 | LAD -160 | SD + 140

Julio Urias (THE BAT's No. 24 SP) vs. Joe Musgrove (THE BAT's No. 20 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 9 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

80 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

5 mph out to RF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Julio Urias has been throwing a curveball (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (34% usage) than he did in 2020 (22% usage)

·  Julio Urias is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Joe Musgrove has been throwing a fastball (12% increase) far less often in 2021 (18% usage) than he did in 2020 (30% usage)

·  Joe Musgrove has been throwing a cutter (13% increase) far more often in 2021 (19% usage) than he did in 2020 (6% usage)

·  So far in 2021, Joe Musgrove has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 2.87 ERA despite a 3.46 FIP

·  THE BAT X projects the Dodgers (No. 1 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.323 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Will Smith)

·  The Padres (21.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Padres have five players (Tommy Pham, Victor Caratini, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Padres Moneyline as it's dropped from + 150 to + 140 despite only getting 35% of the cash

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 78% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 76% of the cash and 59% of the bet tickets on the UNDER

·  The most profitable market for the San Diego Padres has been their Team Total Under which is 73-60 generating + 6.50 Units (4% ROI)

·  This season the Dodgers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 70-59 resulting in + 5.50 Units (4% ROI)

·  Mookie Betts' Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 400/-845)

back to news

PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Close