MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 15 out of 297)

2. SD - Blake Snell (No. 19)

3. STL - Jack Flaherty (No. 20)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 280 out of 297)

2. MIN - Matt Shoemaker (No. 260)

3. DET - Tarik Skubal (No. 254)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at MIA (72 degrees)

2. TOR at HOU (72 degrees)

3. SEA at TEX (70 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. MIN at DET (51 degrees)

2. CIN at CLE (51 degrees)

3. PIT at CHC (54 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 3.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -140

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.35 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Blue Jays at Astros

Projected: 10.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Twins at Tigers

Projected: 9.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

·  Dodgers at Angels

Projected: 9.51 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Brewers at Marlins

Projected: 6.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -115

·  D-Backs at Mets

Projected: 6.91 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

·  Pirates at Cubs

Projected: 7.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

Miami Marlins (14-16) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (17-15)

O/U: 6.5 | MIA -140 | MIL + 120

Trevor Rogers (THE BAT's No. 47 SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

Marlins Park (No. 28 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Trevor Rogers' fastball (94.4 mph) has been 1.6 mph faster than it was last season

·  Trevor Rogers has been throwing a fastball (10% increase) far more often in 2021 (62% usage) than he did in 2020 (52% usage)

·  Trevor Rogers and his 1.91 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.82 thus far in 2021

·  Brent Suter may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 78 pitches

·  Brent Suter has a reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 7 of today

·  The Marlins are the No. 5 most strikeout-prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.2% according to THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 7 and is now at 6.5

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Run Line which is 18-12 generating + 4.90 Units (12% ROI)

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 17-15 resulting in + 2.35 Units (5% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Trevor Rogers's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+ 120/-150)

New York Mets (13-13) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (15-16)

O/U: 7 | NYM -135 | ARI + 115

David Peterson (THE BAT's No. 81 SP) vs. Zac Gallen (THE BAT's No. 27 SP)

Citi Field (No. 30 Runs | No. 15 HR | No. 4 K)

56 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

11 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  David Peterson is throwing a fastball 11% less often this season (19% usage) than he did last season (30% usage)

·  David Peterson has been throwing a sinker (15% increase) far more often in 2021 (39% usage) than he did in 2020 (24% usage)

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, David Peterson (48% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with 2 Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  David Peterson is projected to face 7 opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  THE BAT projects David Peterson (4.09 projected ERA) to be much better going forward than his 4.81 ERA season-to-date indicates

·  Zac Gallen has been throwing a fastball (15% increase) far more often in 2021 (54% usage) than he did in 2020 (39% usage)

·  Zac Gallen is throwing a cutter 14% less often this season (10% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Zac Gallen's reverse platoon split makes him especially effective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face 6 of them today

·  THE BAT X views the D-Backs as the #3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 7.5 Runs and is now 7.0 Runs·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 60% of the bet tickets are on the Mets, but 86% of the cash is on the D-Backs

·  The Run Line has 60% of the bet tickets on the Mets, but 86% of the cash is on the D-Backs resulting in two-way action

·  The most profitable market for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been their Team Total Over which is 18-11 generating + 4.48 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the New York Mets has been their Game Total Under which is 15-10 generating + 3.60 Units (12% ROI)

·  Zac Gallen's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+ 115) is the most popular prop for the game

Houston Astros (16-15) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (16-14)

O/U: 9 | HOU -140 | TOR + 120

Jose Urquidy (THE BAT's No. 173 SP) vs. Ross Stripling (THE BAT's No. 155 SP)

Minute Maid Park (No. 22 Runs | No. 14 HR | No. 2 K)

72 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jose Urquidy's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face eight of them today

·  Jose Urquidy and his 3.71 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.54 thus far in 2021

·  Ross Stripling may be limited today, with THE BAT projecting a maximum pitch count of roughly 85 pitches

·  Ross Stripling's slider usage (25% in 2021, 12% in 2020) has increased 13% this season

·  Ross Stripling's fastball (2167 rpm) has lost 108 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Ross Stripling is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  The Astros are the least strikeout-prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 19.2% according to THE BAT X

·  The Astros have four players (Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, Aledmys Diaz, Michael Brantley) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tied for most in MLB

·  The Blue Jays' 0.308 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  Toronto boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, tied for most in MLB (Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Houston Astros Moneyline opening price of -125 has steamed 15 cents and is now -140

·  The Game Total has the most lopsided action today with 91% of the bet tickets and 79% of the cash on the OVER

·  This season the Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 17-13 resulting in + 3.05 Units (9% ROI)

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 17-13 resulting in + 2.55 Units (8% ROI)

·  Vladimir Guerrero Jr's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 360/-715)

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