MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3 out of 299)

2. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 18)

3. TOR - Hyun-Jin Ryu (No. 23)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 284 out of 299)

2. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 277)

3. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 267)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. TEX at SEA - Hunter Wendelstedt (No. 38 out of 110)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at LAD - Greg Gibson (No. 15 out of 110)

2. STL at ARI - Jeff Nelson (No. 29)

3. LAA at OAK - Larry Vanover (No. 41)

Today's Hottest Games

1. STL at ARI (98 degrees)

2. SD at HOU (85 degrees)

3. SF at LAD (69 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. NYY at DET (47 degrees)

2. BAL at CWS (49 degrees)

3. CIN at CHC (51 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 5.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 4.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 2.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -110

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 2.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O + 110

·  New York Mets

Projected: 2.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Red Sox

Projected: 9.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

·  Brewers at Nationals

Projected: 9.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Cardinals at D-Backs

Projected: 9.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Reds at Cubs

Projected: 5.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -115

·  Braves at Mets

Projected: 6.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

·  Yankees at Tigers

Projected: 6.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Mets (24-20) vs. Atlanta Braves (24-25)

O/U: 7 | NYM + 135 | ATL -155

(THE BAT's No. SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

(No. Runs | No. HR | No. K)

54 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

12 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Taijuan Walker's fastball (93.6 mph) has been 1.1 mph faster than it was last season

·  Taijuan Walker's sinker usage (24% in 2021, 12% in 2020) has increased 12% this season

·  Taijuan Walker is throwing a slider 23% more often this season (23% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  Taijuan Walker has been throwing a cutter (21% increase) far less often in 2021 (0% usage) than he did in 2020 (21% usage)

·  Given that ground ball pitchers are most effective against fly ball hitters, Ian Anderson (56% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Ian Anderson has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.82 ERA is 0.55 points below his 3.38 FIP

·  The Mets have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.289 wOBA going forward

·  The Braves (0.323 wOBA) have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Braves have 4 players (Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 6.5 Runs, but is now 7.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The Atlanta Braves Run Line is showing the most line movement today as it opened at -1.5 (+ 130) before dropping to -1.5 (+ 110)

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 96% of the cash and 62% of the bet tickets on the Braves

·  The OVER has 72% of the bet tickets and 75% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The most profitable market for the New York Mets has been their Game Total Under which is 26-16 generating + 7.60 Units (15% ROI)

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 28-18 resulting in + 6.44 Units (11% ROI)

·  Ronald Acuna Jr.'s Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 250/-405)

Houston Astros (27-22) vs. San Diego Padres (32-19)

O/U: 8.5 | HOU -120 | SD + 100

(THE BAT's No. SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

(No. Runs | No. HR | No. K)

85 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Framber Valdez may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 69 pitches

·  Given that Ground ball  pitchers are most effective against fly ball hitters, Framber Valdez (61% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dinelson Lamet and his 1.50 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.58 thus far in 2021

·  The Astros (18.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Astros (0.327 wOBA) have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Astros have 4 players (Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Padres have 4 players (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-seong Kim, Eric Hosmer) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Astros Moneyline has steamed 15 cents as it opened at -105 and is now -120

·  The Moneyline has two-way action as 68% of the bet tickets are on the Padres, but 80% of the cash is on the Astros

·  This season the Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 30-18 resulting in + 10.50 Units (20% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the San Diego Padres has been their Run Line which is 28-23 generating + 3.90 Units (6% ROI)

·  Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Total Bases Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+ 125/-175)

Arizona Diamondbacks (18-33) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (28-22)

O/U: 9.5 | ARI -140 | STL + 120

(THE BAT's No. SP) vs. (THE BAT's No. SP)

Jeff Nelson (Extreme Hitters Umpire - No. 29 in MLB)

(No. Runs | No. HR | No. K)

98 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

6 mph in from LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Madison Bumgarner (90.4 mph) has added 2.5 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Madison Bumgarner's fastball spin rate (2499 rpm) has jumped 104 rpm since 2020

·  Madison Bumgarner's fly ball nature (38% FB% since 2019) should play well in Chase Field (No. 3 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Madison Bumgarner (38% FB% since 2019) projects to face two ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since fly ball pitchers perform best against ground ball hitters

·  Madison Bumgarner (4.53 ERA) has been underperforming his 3.93 FIP by 0.60 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  The D-Backs are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.5% according to THE BAT X

·  Strikeouts against St. Louis may be easy to come by today, as three players (Tyler O'Neill, Johan Oviedo, Lane Thomas) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  The Cardinals have four players (Tyler O'Neill, Justin Williams, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The most line movement today is the Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline as it opened at -110 before dropping to -140

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 9.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The St. Louis Cardinals Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 29-21 resulting in + 7.50 Units (11% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been their Team Total Under which is 26-23 generating + 0.45 Units (1% ROI)

·  Madison Bumgarner's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+ 115)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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