MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. TB - Tyler Glasnow (No. 9 out of 298)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 12)

3. LAD - Trevor Bauer (No. 14)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CIN - Jeff Hoffman (No. 266 out of 298)

2. ARI - Seth Frankoff (No. 250)

3. DET - Jose Urena (No. 214)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at CIN (84 degrees)

2. TB at TOR (83 degrees)

3. PIT at ATL (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAD at SF (54 degrees)

2. SEA at SD (62 degrees)

3. OAK at LAA (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.29 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 5.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  D-Backs at Rockies

Projected: 12.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -115

·  Rays at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O + 100

·  Brewers at Reds

Projected: 10.06 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Giants

Projected: 7.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

·  Mets at Marlins

Projected: 7.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -120

·  Mariners at Padres

Projected: 7.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (23-18) vs. Minnesota Twins (15-28)

O/U: 9 | CLE -130 | MIN + 110

Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 115 SP) vs. Randy Dobnak (THE BAT's No. 121 SP)

Progressive Field (No. 6 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

79 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

4 mph in from RF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Triston McKenzie's fastball (90.5 mph) has been 1.6 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Triston McKenzie's spin rate (2240 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Given that Flyball pitchers are most effective against Groundball hitters, Triston McKenzie (41% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Groundball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Randy Dobnak (57% GB% since 2019) projects to face four Flyball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Groundball pitchers perform best against Flyball hitters

·  The Cleveland Indians's 21.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 least on today's slate of games

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.291 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow, Jose Ramirez)

·  The Twins are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.5% according to THE BAT X

·  Minnesota boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Josh Donaldson, Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Minnesota Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 26-15 resulting in + 9.75 Units (21% ROI)

·  The Cleveland Indians Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 24-16 resulting in + 6.28 Units (13% ROI)

Texas Rangers (19-27) vs. Houston Astros (26-18)

O/U: 8.5 | TEX + 105 | HOU -125

Kyle Gibson (THE BAT's No. 126 SP) vs. Tyler Ivey (THE BAT's No. 91 SP)

Globe Life Field (No. 20 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Kyle Gibson is throwing a cutter 13% more often this season (13% usage) than he did last season (0% usage)

·  While THE BAT projects Kyle Gibson's ERA going forward to be 4.27, his actual has been 2.32 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Tyler Ivey may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 82 pitches

·  THE BAT X views the Rangers as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  Texas boasts 3 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Charlie Culberson, Adolis Garcia, Willie Calhoun)

·  The Astros (18.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 1 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X views the Astros as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Astros have four players (Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel) with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 85% of the bet tickets and 55% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Astros Moneyline has 71% of the bet tickets and 66% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The most profitable market for the Houston Astros has been their Game Total Over which is 27-16 generating + 9.60 Units (20% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Texas Rangers has been their Team Total Over which is 26-19 generating + 4.20 Units (8% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 355/-705)

Colorado Rockies (15-29) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (18-27)

O/U: 11 | COL -150 | ARI + 130

German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 43 SP) vs. Seth Frankoff (THE BAT's No. 250 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

77 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

16 mph out to CF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, German Marquez's fastball (94.3 mph) has been 1.0 mph slower than it was in 2020

·  German Marquez's spin rate (2078 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  German Marquez's ability to keep the ball on the ground (51% GB% since 2019) should help him in Coors Field (No. 10 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Groundball pitchers tend to perform worse against Flyball hitters, and German Marquez (51% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Seth Frankoff's 3.86 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.93 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Colorado Rockies' 26.1 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 3 most on today's slate of games

·  The Rockies have three players (Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story, Garrett Hampson) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The D-Backs are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.4% according to THE BAT X

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