MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 7 out of 296)

2. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 8)

3. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 12)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. SEA - Robert Dugger (No. 274 out of 296)

2. MIN - Matt Shoemaker (No. 251)

3. CHC - Jake Arrieta (No. 237)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CHC at SF - CB Bucknor (No. 15 out of 110)

2. MIA at PIT - Sean Barber (No. 40)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SEA at LAA - Mark Carlson (No. 7 out of 110)

Today's Hottest Games

1. OAK at COL (87 degrees)

2. ARI at MIL (84 degrees)

3. LAD at ATL (83 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CHC at SF (55 degrees)

2. NYM at SD (64 degrees)

3. HOU at TOR (68 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 6.52 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 5.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 5.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.54 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 3.88 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Athletics at Rockies

Projected: 12.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  Twins at Royals

Projected: 10.85 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Red Sox at Yankees

Projected: 10.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Mets at Padres

Projected: 7.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -110

·  Nationals at Phillies

Projected: 7.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

·  Rays at Rangers

Projected: 8.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Baltimore Orioles (19-37) vs. Cleveland Indians (30-24)

O/U: 8.5 | BAL -105 | CLE -115

Keegan Akin (THE BAT's No. 191 SP) vs. Jean Carlos Mejia (THE BAT's No. 62 SP)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 6 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

80 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

5 mph out to CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Keegan Akin is a flyball pitcher (33% FB% since 2019) and Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the No. 4 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Keegan Akin (33% FB% since 2019) is projected to face 4 of them today

·  Keegan Akin has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 1.93 ERA is 3.63 points below his 5.56 FIP

·  Jean Carlos Mejia may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 70 pitches

·  The Indians are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.0% according to THE BAT X

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.292 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians offense is quite fast; they have the No. 4 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Cesar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 9.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  The Orioles Moneyline has 29% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 100 to -105 resulting in reverse line movement

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 79% of the bet tickets and 71% of the cash is on the Indians

·  This season the Indians Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 28-21 resulting in + 4.73 Units (8% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Baltimore Orioles has been their Game Total Under which is 30-24 generating + 3.70 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Jose Ramirez's Total Bases Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 1.0 Total Bases (-115/-110)

New York Yankees (31-26) vs. Boston Red Sox (33-23)

O/U: 9.0 | NYY -120 | BOS + 100

Michael King (THE BAT's No. 123 SP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (THE BAT's No. 69 SP)

Yankee Stadium (No. 11 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

73 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

7 mph out to LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Michael King may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 78 pitches

·  Nathan Eovaldi has been throwing a slider (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (11% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Nathan Eovaldi has been throwing a cutter (17% increase) far less often in 2021 (14% usage) than he did in 2020 (31% usage)

·  Nathan Eovaldi is projected to face 7 opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Despite a 2.39 FIP, Nathan Eovaldi's unlucky ERA has been 1.61 points worse at 4.01

·  The Yankees' 0.303 team wOBA makes them the No. 1 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  New York boasts 3 active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton)

·  THE BAT X views the Red Sox as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Red Sox offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Bobby Dalbec, Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the UNDER after the Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  The New York Yankees Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 36-20 resulting in + 15.00 Units (23% ROI)

·  The Boston Red Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 33-23 resulting in + 10.90 Units (16% ROI)

·  Aaron Judge's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 355/-700)

Chicago White Sox (34-22) vs. Detroit Tigers (23-33)

O/U: 8.5 | CWS -160 | DET + 140

Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 126 SP) vs. Spencer Turnbull (THE BAT's No. 70 SP)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 9 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

83 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

13 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dallas Keuchel is throwing a cutter 11% less often this season (20% usage) than he did last season (31% usage)

·  Dallas Keuchel's ability to keep the ball on the ground (58% GB% since 2019) should help him in Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 3 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Dallas Keuchel (58% GB% since 2019) projects to face two fly ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since ground ball pitchers perform worst against fly ball hitters

·  Guaranteed Rate Field is baseball's No. 3 best park for home runs, but Spencer Turnbull's groundball-heavy skillset (50% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Given that Groundball pitchers are most effective against Flyball hitters, Spencer Turnbull (50% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with 2 Flyball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Spencer Turnbull's 2.93 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.96 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  THE BAT X views the White Sox as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The White Sox have three players (Nick Madrigal, Adam Eaton, Leury Garcia) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Tigers are the No. 3 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.1% according to THE BAT X

·  The Tigers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs: They have the No. 2 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Akil Baddoo, Robbie Grossman, Niko Goodrum)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 8.0 Runs and is now 8.5 Runs

·  There is reverse line movement on the Tigers Moneyline as it has dropped from + 150 to + 140 despite only getting 29% of the cash

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 74% of the bet tickets and 71% of the cash is on the White Sox

·  This season the White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 30-25 resulting in + 10.65 Units (17% ROI)

·  The Detroit Tigers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 33-21 resulting in + 9.95 Units (16% ROI)

·  Spencer Turnbull's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150)

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