MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16276532

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 293)

2. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 7)

3. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 18)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 289 out of 293)

2. PHI - Matt Moore (No. 283)

3. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 278)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. WSH at MIA - Roberto Ortiz (No. 8 out of 110)

2. PIT at STL - Hunter Wendelstedt (No. 37)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. BAL at TOR - Edwin Moscoso (No. 2 out of 110)

2. HOU at DET - Sam Holbrook (No. 4)

3. CLE at MIN - Ramon De Jesus (No. 20)

Today's Hottest Games

1. PIT at STL (87 degrees)

2. ATL at CIN (84 degrees)

3. CLE at MIN (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. OAK at SF (57 degrees)

2. KC at TEX (70 degrees)

3. ARI at SD (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 6.11 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 110

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -135

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Mets

Projected: 2.64 runs

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 2.97 runs

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.02 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Reds

Projected: 11.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Yankees at Red Sox

Projected: 11.00 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

·  Orioles at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Mets

Projected: 5.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O + 100

·  Athletics at Giants

Projected: 7.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Rockies at Brewers

Projected: 7.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O + 100

GAMES OF THE DAY

Milwaukee Brewers (42-33) vs. Colorado Rockies (31-44)

O/U: 7.5 | MIL -270 | COL + 230

Corbin Burnes (THE BAT's No. 2 SP) vs. Jon Gray (THE BAT's No. 117 SP)

American Family Field (No. 16 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

72 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Corbin Burnes is throwing a sinker 14% less often this season (10% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Corbin Burnes' cutter usage (55% in 2021, 35% in 2020) has increased 20% this season

·  Jon Gray may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 77 pitches

·  The Milwaukee Brewers' 26.7 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.292 wOBA going forward

·  Milwaukee boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 8 (tie) most in MLB (Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, Christian Yelich)

·  The Rockies are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.4% according to THE BAT X

·  The Rockies offense is quite fast; they have the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Garrett Hampson, Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia, Yonathan Daza)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline opening price of -235 has steamed 40 cents and is now -275

·  The Brewers Moneyline has 85% of the cash and 61% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 39-36 resulting in + 2.55 Units (3% ROI)

·  This season the Rockies Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 35-28 resulting in + 2.30 Units (3% ROI)

·  Corbin Burnes' Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)

Texas Rangers (27-48) vs. Kansas City Royals (33-40)

O/U: 8.0 | TEX -125 | KC + 105

Dane Dunning (THE BAT's No. 62 SP) vs. Mike Minor (THE BAT's No. 84 SP)

Globe Life Field (No. 21 Runs | No. 18 HR | No. 21 K)

70 degrees (No. 2 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dane Dunning's fastball usage (0% in 2021, 22% in 2020) has decreased 22% this season

·  Dane Dunning has been throwing a sinker (15% increase) far more often in 2021 (54% usage) than he did in 2020 (39% usage)

·  Dane Dunning (51% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Fly ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Fly ball hitters

·  Dane Dunning (4.71 ERA) has been underperforming his 3.32 FIP by 1.38 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  Mike Minor is throwing a fastball 10% less often this season (40% usage) than he did last season (50% usage)

·  Mike Minor is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Kansas City boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Michael A. Taylor, Hunter Dozier, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Rangers Moneyline opened at -105, but is now -125 and is showing the most line movement on the slate today

·  The OVER has 82% of the bet tickets and 67% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The Kansas City Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 38-32 resulting in + 3.89 Units (5% ROI)

·  The Texas Rangers Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 41-33 resulting in + 3.13 Units (4% ROI)

Minnesota Twins (31-43) vs. Cleveland Indians (41-31)

O/U: 9.5 | MIN -125 | CLE + 105

Ramon De Jesus (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 20 in MLB)

Target Field (No. 10 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

82 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

8 mph in from LF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  The Twins will be deploying a bit of strategy today, using Danny Coulombe as an opener for this contest

·  Cal Quantrill has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.74 ERA is 1.04 points below his 3.79 FIP

·  The Twins (21.4 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Minnesota boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Trevor Larnach)

·  The Indians have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%+ , according to THE BAT X (Bradley Zimmer, Austin Hedges, Bobby Bradley)

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.296 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have four players (Cesar Hernandez, Harold Ramirez, Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 90% of the bet tickets and 59% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The most profitable market for the Minnesota Twins has been their Game Total Over which is 45-25 generating + 17.55 Units (22% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cleveland Indians has been their Moneyline which is 41-31 generating + 5.80 Units (6% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nelson Cruz's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 260/-435)

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Keep an eye out for diminishing returns on teams that you were high on at the beginning of the season like the Colts. Know when to sell on these teams.

Follow The Money: QB play is down in the NFL, according to Michael Lombardi. Worth looking at more Unders until it changes.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Tim Murray: Florida -10 vs Mizzou

Dave Tuley: Texans +7 at Jaguars

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-10-03_at_7.42.33_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close