MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 296)

2. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 8)

3. LAD - Trevor Bauer (No. 23)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Chad Kuhl (No. 281 out of 296)

2. DET - Jose Urena (No. 260)

3. BAL - Bruce Zimmermann (No. 259)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. MIL at COL - Mike Estabrook (No. 3 out of 110)

2. DET at LAA - Ryan Blakney (No. 15)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. STL at ATL - John Libka (No. 19 out of 110)

2. CIN at SD - Larry Vanover (No. 28)

3. CWS at HOU - Alan Porter (No. 31)

Today's Hottest Games

1. BOS at KC (94 degrees)

2. STL at ATL (89 degrees)

3. TOR at BAL (83 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PHI at SF (65 degrees)

2. CIN at SD (69 degrees)

3. MIN at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 6.14 runs

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -125

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.92 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 3.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Red Sox at Royals

Projected: 11.34 runs

·  Athletics at Yankees

Projected: 10.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

·  Blue Jays at Orioles

Projected: 10.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Rays at Mariners

Projected: 7.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  White Sox at Astros

Projected: 8.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

·  Phillies at Giants

Projected: 8.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (36-32) vs. Oakland Athletics (43-27)

O/U: 9.5 | NYY -140 | OAK + 120

Jameson Taillon (THE BAT's No. 60 SP) vs. James Kaprielian (THE BAT's No. 151 SP)

Yankee Stadium (No. 18 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

81 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

10 mph out to LF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jameson Taillon may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 80 pitches

·  James Kaprielian is a fly ball pitcher (47% FB% since 2019) and Yankee Stadium is the No. 3 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  James Kaprielian (47% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  James Kaprielian has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.51 ERA is 1.41 points below his 3.91 FIP

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.308 wOBA going forward

·  The Yankees have three players (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Athletics (0.317 wOBA) have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy, Mark Canha, Seth Brown)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The OVER has 66% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 41-26 generating + 13.30 Units (17% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Oakland Athletics has been their Moneyline which is 43-27 generating + 11.45 Units (12% ROI)

·  Jameson Taillon's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 140/-180) is the most popular prop for the game

Los Angeles Angels (34-35) vs. Detroit Tigers (29-40)

O/U: 9 | LAA -220 | DET + 180

Alex Cobb (THE BAT's No. 66 SP) vs. Jose Urena (THE BAT's No. 260 SP)

Ryan Blakney (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 15 in MLB)

Angel Stadium (No. 15 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

74 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

7 mph out to CF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Alex Cobb's fastball usage (1% in 2021, 48% in 2020) has decreased 47% this season

·  Alex Cobb has been throwing a sinker (41% increase) far more often in 2021 (41% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  Alex Cobb's ability to keep the ball on the ground (56% GB% since 2019) should help him in Angel Stadium (No. 5 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Alex Cobb is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Despite a 2.58 FIP, Alex Cobb's unlucky ERA has been 2.41 points worse at 4.98

·  Jose Urena's ground ball tendencies (50% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Angel Stadium (No. 5 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Given that ground ball pitchers are most effective against fly ball hitters, Jose Urena (50% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  THE BAT X views the Angels as the No. 7 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  Los Angeles boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB (Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, Taylor Ward)

·  The Tigers have three players (Robbie Grossman, Akil Baddoo, Niko Goodrum) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tied for most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Angels Moneyline has steamed 30 cents as it opened at -190 and is now -220

·  The Angels Moneyline has 73% of the cash and 59% of the bet tickets resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 67% of the cash and 64% of the bet tickets is on the OVER

·  This season the Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 42-27 resulting in + 11.55 Units (15% ROI)

·  The Detroit Tigers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 38-29 resulting in + 6.35 Units (8% ROI)

·  Shohei Ohtani's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 270/-460) is the most popular prop for the game

Arizona Diamondbacks (20-50) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (41-27)

O/U: 9.5 | ARI + 165 | LAD -190

Caleb Smith (THE BAT's No. 182 SP) vs. Trevor Bauer (THE BAT's No. 23 SP)

Chase Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Caleb Smith's skillset (48% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Caleb Smith (48% FB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  So far in 2021, Caleb Smith has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.61 ERA despite a 4.13 FIP

·  Trevor Bauer's fly ball nature (40% FB% since 2019) should play well in Chase Field (No. 2 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against ground ball hitters, and Trevor Bauer (40% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  The Los Angeles Dodgers' 22.2 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the fourth-lowest on today's slate of games

·  The Dodgers have three players (Justin Turner, Albert Pujols, Chris Taylor) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tied for most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The D-Backs Moneyline has 17% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 195 to + 165 resulting in reverse line movement

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 9.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 72% of the bet tickets and 83% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 72% of the bet tickets and 70% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  This season the D-Backs Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 38-31 resulting in + 3.70 Units (5% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Over which is 35-31 generating + 1.90 Units (3% ROI)

·  Trevor Bauer's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+ 115/-150) is the most popular prop for the game

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