MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_15918673

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYM - Jacob deGrom (No. 1 out of 298)

2. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 4)

3. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 5)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PIT - Chase De Jong (No. 292 out of 298)

2. SEA - Justin Dunn (No. 267)

3. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 263)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. KC at OAK - Lance Barksdale (No. 25 out of 110)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAA at ARI (87 degrees)

2. CWS at DET (85 degrees)

3. COL at CIN (83 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. KC at OAK (60 degrees)

2. TOR at BOS (64 degrees)

3. SF at WSH (66 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 6.12 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -120

·  Cleveland Indians

Projected: 5.38 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -120

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.19 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 2.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O 110

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -105

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Astros at Twins

Projected: 11.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -105

·  Blue Jays at Red Sox

Projected: 10.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -115

·  Mariners at Indians

Projected: 9.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Mets

Projected: 5.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

·  Braves at Marlins

Projected: 7.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Giants at Nationals

Projected: 7.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

Detroit Tigers (26-36) vs. Chicago White Sox (38-24)

O/U: 8.5 | DET 140 | CWS -160

Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 147 SP) vs. Lucas Giolito (THE BAT's No. 17 SP)

Comerica Park (No. 16 Runs | No. 23 HR | No. 28 K)

85 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

9 mph in from LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin on Tarik Skubal's fastball (2235 rpm) has been 187 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Tarik Skubal's skillset (47% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Comerica Park (No. 6 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Tarik Skubal (47% FB% since 2019) projects to face 2 Groundball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Flyball pitchers perform worst against Groundball hitters

·  Lucas Giolito has added nearly 100 rpm of spin to his fastball (2427 rpm) in 2021

·  Lucas Giolito is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  THE BAT projects Lucas Giolito (3.34 projected ERA) to be much better going forward than his 3.88 ERA season-to-date indicates

·  The Detroit Tigers's 26.5 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  The Tigers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30% , according to THE BAT X (Akil Baddoo, Niko Goodrum, Eric Haase)

·  The Tigers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they are tied for the most players in baseball with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Akil Baddoo, Niko Goodrum, Robbie Grossman)

·  According to THE BAT X, the White Sox and their 0.325 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The White Sox have three players (Andrew Vaughn, Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Game Total has shown the most line movement today as it opened at OVER 8.0 Runs (-110), but has been bet up to OVER 8.5 (-105)

·  The opening Run Line for the Detroit Tigers was 1.5 (-110), but is now 1.5 (-125) after it steamed 15 cents

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 84% of the bet tickets are on the White Sox, but 52% of the cash is on the Tigers

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 63% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 28% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Moneyline has 75% of the bet tickets on the White Sox, but 55% of the cash is on the Tigers resulting in two-way action

·  The Chicago White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 33-28 resulting in 10.80 Units (16% ROI)

·  This season the Tigers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 36-24 resulting in 9.60 Units (14% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Lucas Giolito's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-125)

 

Minnesota Twins (25-37) vs. Houston Astros (35-27)

 

O/U: 11 | MIN 140 | HOU -160

 

Matt Shoemaker (THE BAT's No. 250 SP) vs. Jose Urquidy (THE BAT's No. 124 SP)

Target Field (No. 12 Runs | No. 22 HR | No. 19 K)

82 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

9 mph out to CF (No. 4 strongest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Matt Shoemaker is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his disadvantage given his reverse platoon split

·  Jose Urquidy's skillset (39% FB% since 2019) ought to play well in Target Field (No. 9 best homer-suppressing park in MLB) today

·  Jose Urquidy's large reverse platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  The Astros (18.6 K%, via THE BAT X) have the least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  THE BAT X views the Astros as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Astros offense has the most hitters in baseball with an xwOBA in the 75th percentile or better this year (Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel)

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is line movement toward the OVER after the Game Total opened at 10.5 Runs and is now 11.0 Runs

·  The Game Total has lopsided action today with 75% of the bet tickets and 58% of the cash on the OVER

·  This season the Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 39-19 resulting in 18.15 Units (27% ROI)

·  The Houston Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 37-24 resulting in 11.00 Units (16% ROI)

·  Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 270/-460)

 

Milwaukee Brewers (35-27) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (23-38)

 

O/U: 7.5 | MIL -290 | PIT 245

 

Brandon Woodruff (THE BAT's No. 4 SP) vs. Chase De Jong (THE BAT's No. 292 SP)

American Family Field (No. 17 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

76 degrees (No. 7 hottest today)

6 mph in from CF (No. 6 weakest winds today)

 

DATA NUGGETS

·  Brandon Woodruff's spin rate (2382 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Brandon Woodruff and his 1.42 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 2.86 thus far in 2021

·  Chase De Jong may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 10 best home run park in baseball (American Family Field) given his flyball tendencies (40% FB% since 2019)

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform worse against Groundball hitters, and Chase De Jong (40% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Chase De Jong is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which plays to his advantage given his large reverse platoon split

·  The Brewers are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.3% according to THE BAT X

·  The Brewers' 0.294 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  Milwaukee boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, Willy Adames)

 

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Brewers Run Line opening price of -1.5 (-120) has steamed 10 cents and is now -1.5 (-130)

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 69% of the bet tickets and 86% of the cash on the Brewers

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 76% of the bet tickets and 53% of the cash is on the Brewers

·  The Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 35-24 resulting in 6.93 Units (10% ROI)

·  This season the Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 34-28 resulting in 5.90 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Brandon Woodruff's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)

 

 

back to news

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

​Michael Lombardi: Seahawks -7. View more picks.

 

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
Close