MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 12 out of 342)

2. TB - Shane McClanahan (No. 46)

3. TOR - Alek Manoah (No. 50)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 332 out of 342)

2. TEX - Jordan Lyles (No. 281)

3. DET - Matt Manning (No. 263)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. CIN at MIL - Doug Eddings (No. 7 out of 110)

2. KC at CLE - Tripp Gibson (No. 11)

3. DET at MIN - Dan Merzel (No. 21)

Today's Hottest Games

1. CWS at BAL (85 degrees)

2. PIT at NYM (81 degrees)

3. ARI at LAD (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. WSH at SF (65 degrees)

2. PHI at BOS (69 degrees)

3. KC at CLE (69 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 5.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Minnesota Twins

Projected: 5.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -135

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 3.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Red Sox

Projected: 11.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.0 O -110

·  Yankees at Astros

Projected: 9.87 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Tigers at Twins

Projected: 9.60 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Cubs

Projected: 7.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O + 100

·  Braves at Marlins

Projected: 7.68 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Rockies at Padres

Projected: 7.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (43-42) vs. Kansas City Royals (36-51)

O/U: 10.0 | CLE -145 | KC + 125

Triston McKenzie (THE BAT's No. 178 SP) vs. Brad Keller (THE BAT's No. 163 SP)

Tripp Gibson (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 11 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

69 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)

8 mph in from LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Triston McKenzie (90.7 mph) has lost 1.4 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Triston McKenzie's fastball (2235 rpm) has lost 102 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Thus far in 2021, Brad Keller's fastball (93.6 mph) has been 1.3 mph faster than it was last season

·  Brad Keller has been throwing a fastball (10% increase) far less often in 2021 (29% usage) than he did in 2020 (39% usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Brad Keller (50% GB% since 2019) is projected to face four of them today

·  The Indians are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 26.6% according to THE BAT X

·  The projected lineup for the Indians holds four extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Bradley Zimmer, Bobby Bradley, Roberto Perez, Daniel Johnson Jr.. THE BAT projects all for a Bradley Zimmer, Bobby Bradley, Roberto Perez, Daniel Johnson Jr.+ underlying K%

·  The Indians have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.298 wOBA going forward

·  The Indians have four players (Cesar Hernandez, Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Royals offense is quite fast; they have the No. 3 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Nicky Lopez, Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs, but is now 10.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the OVER

·  The Game Total has two-way action as 89% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 29% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 71% of the bet tickets and 77% of the cash on the Indians

·  Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 330/-615)

San Francisco Giants (54-32) vs. Washington Nationals (42-44)

O/U: 9.0 | SF -150 | WSH + 130

Logan Webb (THE BAT's No. 61 SP) vs. Paolo Espino (THE BAT's No. 332 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

65 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

9 mph out to LF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Logan Webb may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 3 pitches

·  Logan Webb has been throwing a fastball (17% increase) far less often in 2021 (16% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Logan Webb is throwing a sinker 17% more often this season (30% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Logan Webb (53% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Despite a 3.34 FIP, Logan Webb's unlucky ERA has been 0.51 points worse at 3.86

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Giants have three players (Wilmer Flores, Austin Slater, Brandon Crawford) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Nationals (0.318 wOBA) have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Nationals was + 150, but is now + 130 after it steamed 20 cents

·  The Moneyline has 53% of the bet tickets on the Giants, but 80% of the cash is on the Nationals resulting in two-way action

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 71% of the bet tickets and 69% of the cash is on the Nationals

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 71% of the bet tickets and 69% of the cash on the Nationals

·  Juan Soto's Total Bases Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-115)

Seattle Mariners (46-42) vs. Los Angeles Angels (44-42)

O/U: 8.5 | SEA + 110 | LAA -130

Marco Gonzales (THE BAT's No. 148 SP) vs. Alex Cobb (THE BAT's No. 77 SP)

T-Mobile Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 6 HR | No. 1 K)

77 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

7 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Marco Gonzales' cutter usage (12% in 2021, 24% in 2020) has decreased 12% this season

·  Alex Cobb has been throwing a fastball (45% increase) far less often in 2021 (3% usage) than he did in 2020 (48% usage)

·  Alex Cobb has been throwing a sinker (42% increase) far more often in 2021 (42% usage) than he did in 2020 (0% usage)

·  T-Mobile Park is baseball's No. 9 best park for home runs, but Alex Cobb's ground ball-heavy skillset (55% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Alex Cobb has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.60 ERA despite a 2.61 FIP

·  Seattle boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Mitch Haniger, Tom Murphy, Kyle Seager)

·  The Los Angeles Angels' 22.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 least on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X views the Angels as the No. 5 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  Los Angeles boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB (Taylor Ward, Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Mariners Moneyline has 41% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 120 to + 110 resulting in reverse line movement

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 68% of the bet tickets and 59% of the cash is on the Angels

·  Shohei Ohtani's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 255/-415) is the most popular prop for the game

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