MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 341)

2. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 23)

3. SF - Kevin Gausman (No. 37)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. WSH - Jon Lester (No. 324 out of 341)

2. PIT - Wil Crowe (No. 304)

3. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 296)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. BAL at DET - Chris Guccione (No. 20 out of 110)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. COL at SD - Jeff Nelson (No. 25 out of 110)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIL at ATL (90 degrees)

2. MIN at STL (83 degrees)

3. CHC at WSH (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. HOU at SF (59 degrees)

2. KC at TOR (64 degrees)

3. SEA at TEX (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -135

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 5.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

·  Milwaukee Brewers

Projected: 5.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -130

·  New York Mets

Projected: 3.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O + 120

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Royals at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.20 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

·  Cubs at Nationals

Projected: 9.98 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120

·  Phillies at Pirates

Projected: 9.57 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Astros at Giants

Projected: 7.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Reds at Mets

Projected: 7.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105

·  Yankees at Marlins

Projected: 7.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -110

GAMES OF THE DAY

Miami Marlins (44-58) vs. New York Yankees (53-48)

O/U: 7.5 | MIA + 140 | NYY -160

Zach Thompson (THE BAT's No. 205 SP) vs. Jameson Taillon (THE BAT's No. 64 SP)

Marlins Park (No. 27 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zach Thompson has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Zach Thompson and his 2.45 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.71 thus far in 2021

·  The Miami Marlins' 26.9 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.296 wOBA have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The New York Yankees' 26.6 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 5 most on today's slate of games

·  The Yankees' 0.315 team wOBA makes them the No. 2 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has the most line movement on the slate, as it opened at UNDER 8.0 Runs (+ 105), but has been bet down to UNDER 7.5 (-115)

·  The Yankees Run Line has steamed 15 cents as it opened at -1.5 (+ 110) and is now -1.5 (-105)

·  The Yankees Moneyline has 86% of the bet tickets and 57% of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 77% of the bet tickets and 74% of the cash on the Yankees

·  The most profitable market for the New York Yankees has been their Team Total Under which is 58-40 generating + 14.77 Units (13% ROI)

·  The Miami Marlins Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 54-44 resulting in + 3.79 Units (3% ROI)

·  Jameson Taillon's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 105/-140) is the most popular prop for the game

Arizona Diamondbacks (32-71) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (62-42)

O/U: 9.0 | ARI + 160 | LAD -180

Zac Gallen (THE BAT's No. 47 SP) vs. Tony Gonsolin (THE BAT's No. 102 SP)

Chase Field (No. 11 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zac Gallen has been throwing a fastball (15% increase) far more often in 2021 (54% usage) than he did in 2020 (39% usage)

·  Zac Gallen is throwing a cutter 16% less often this season (8% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)

·  Tony Gonsolin (92.8 mph) has lost 1.7 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Tony Gonsolin's fastball (2372 rpm) has lost 117 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020

·  Tony Gonsolin has a reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Tony Gonsolin has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.38 ERA is 1.79 points below his 4.17 FIP

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 4 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.327 wOBA going forward

·  Los Angeles boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Will Smith, Justin Turner, Albert Pujols, Chris Taylor)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 70% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Dodgers Run Line has 72% of the bet tickets and 63% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  The Arizona Diamondbacks Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 55-47 resulting in + 3.75 Units (3% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Zac Gallen's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 105/-140)

San Francisco Giants (64-38) vs. Houston Astros (63-40)

O/U: 7.5 | SF -130 | HOU + 110

Kevin Gausman (THE BAT's No. 39 SP) vs. Framber Valdez (THE BAT's No. 41 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 19 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

59 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

11 mph out to LF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  This season, Kevin Gausman's fastball (93.8 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  Kevin Gausman has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Framber Valdez has been throwing a sinker (14% increase) far less often in 2021 (42% usage) than he did in 2020 (56% usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Framber Valdez (65% GB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  So far in 2021, Framber Valdez has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 2.97 ERA despite a 4.34 FIP

·  THE BAT X views the Giants as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  San Francisco boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Wilmer Flores, Steven Duggar, Austin Slater)

·  The Houston Astros's 20.9 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 least on today's slate of games

·  The Astros (0.336 wOBA) have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  Houston boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher xwOBA this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is heavy steam on the Giants Moneyline as it opened at -110 and is now -130

·  The most profitable market for the San Francisco Giants has been their Run Line which is 64-38 generating + 30.20 Units (24% ROI)

·  This season the Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 59-43 resulting in + 12.35 Units (11% ROI)

·  Kevin Gausman's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)

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