MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 3 out of 338)

2. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 6)

3. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 15)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. DET - Wily Peralta (No. 309 out of 338)

2. COL - Chi Chi Gonzalez (No. 293)

3. PIT - Chad Kuhl (No. 289)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. LAA at MIN - Roberto Ortiz (No. 12 out of 110)

2. OAK at SEA - Jim Wolf (No. 16)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. ATL at PHI - Stu Scheurwater (No. 14 out of 110)

2. NYY at BOS - Alan Porter (No. 29)

Today's Hottest Games

1. LAA at MIN (93 degrees)

2. DET at KC (90 degrees)

3. ARI at CHC (85 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PIT at SF (59 degrees)

2. NYY at BOS (72 degrees)

3. TEX at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Kansas City Royals

Projected: 5.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 5.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 5.34 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 115

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 3.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 3.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Tigers at Royals

Projected: 10.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -110

·  Angels at Twins

Projected: 10.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

·  Cardinals at Reds

Projected: 10.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Padres at Marlins

Projected: 7.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  White Sox at Brewers

Projected: 7.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

·  Braves at Phillies

Projected: 8.10 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

GAMES OF THE DAY

Miami Marlins (41-56) vs. San Diego Padres (57-42)

O/U: 8 | MIA + 140 | SD -160

Zach Thompson (THE BAT's No. 181 SP) vs. Joe Musgrove (THE BAT's No. 20 SP)

Marlins Park (No. 26 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)

72 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Zach Thompson may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 75 pitches

·  While THE BAT projects Zach Thompson's ERA going forward to be 4.65, his actual has been 1.93 ERA, indicating some regression may be in order

·  Joe Musgrove's fastball usage (17% in 2021, 30% in 2020) has decreased 13% this season

·  Joe Musgrove is throwing a cutter 13% more often this season (19% usage) than he did last season (6% usage)

·  The Marlins have three players (Adam Duvall, Jon Berti, Starling Marte) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

·  San Diego boasts six active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 1 most in MLB (Ha-seong Kim, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Victor Caratini, Fernando Tatis Jr.)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The UNDER has 66% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash resulting in a lopsided handle for the Game Total

·  The Miami Marlins Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 52-41 resulting in + 4.82 Units (4% ROI)

·  This season the Padres Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 52-45 resulting in + 3.10 Units (3% ROI)

·  Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 190/-275)

Milwaukee Brewers (56-41) vs. Chicago White Sox (58-38)

O/U: 7.5 | MIL -130 | CWS + 110

Freddy Peralta (THE BAT's No. 15 SP) vs. Lucas Giolito (THE BAT's No. 24 SP)

American Family Field (No. 15 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

84 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Freddy Peralta is a fly ball pitcher (41% FB% since 2019) and American Family Field is the No. 10 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, Freddy Peralta (41% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Freddy Peralta's 2.39 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.50 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Brewers are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 25.7% according to THE BAT X

·  The Brewers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.304 wOBA going forward

·  Milwaukee boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, Luis Urias)

·  The White Sox (28.3 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  According to THE BAT X, the White Sox and their 0.330 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Moneyline for the Brewers was -120, but is now -130 after it steamed 10 cents

·  This season the White Sox Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 51-44 resulting in + 14.25 Units (13% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Run Line which is 52-45 generating + 8.60 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Freddy Peralta's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+ 125/-160)

San Francisco Giants (61-35) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (36-60)

O/U: 8.5 | SF -180 | PIT + 160

Johnny Cueto (THE BAT's No. 205 SP) vs. Chad Kuhl (THE BAT's No. 289 SP)

Oracle Park (No. 18 Runs | No. 27 HR | No. 11 K)

59 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

10 mph out to LF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Johnny Cueto may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 85 pitches

·  Johnny Cueto has been throwing a slider (16% increase) far more often in 2021 (24% usage) than he did in 2020 (8% usage)

·  Johnny Cueto has been throwing a curveball (19% increase) far less often in 2021 (2% usage) than he did in 2020 (21% usage)

·  Chad Kuhl's fastball usage (17% in 2021, 2% in 2020) has increased 15% this season

·  Chad Kuhl has been throwing a sinker (20% increase) far less often in 2021 (23% usage) than he did in 2020 (43% usage)

·  Chad Kuhl has been throwing a slider (12% increase) far more often in 2021 (45% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Chad Kuhl has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 4.31 ERA is 1.03 points below his 5.35 FIP

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.328 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021

·  San Francisco boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB (Austin Slater, Wilmer Flores, Steven Duggar)

·  The Pirates offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings, Ben Gamel)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 69% of the bet tickets and 84% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 93% of the cash and 60% of the bet tickets on the Giants

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 70% of the bet tickets and 55% of the cash on the Giants

·  The most profitable market for the San Francisco Giants has been their Run Line which is 61-35 generating + 31.15 Units (26% ROI)

·  This season the Pirates Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 53-39 resulting in + 8.10 Units (8% ROI)

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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