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MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Zack Wheeler (No. 3 out of 337)

2. WSH - Max Scherzer (No. 6)

3. MIA - Pablo Lopez (No. 22)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 326 out of 337)

2. STL - Johan Oviedo (No. 318)

3. COL - Chi Chi Gonzalez (No. 271)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. LAD at WSH - Ryan Wills (No. 20 out of 110)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. SF at ARI - Jeff Nelson (No. 22 out of 110)

2. HOU at CLE - Jansen Visconti (No. 41)

Today's Hottest Games

1. STL at COL (86 degrees)

2. MIN at KC (85 degrees)

3. TEX at SEA (79 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. BOS at OAK (59 degrees)

2. TB at TOR (63 degrees)

3. MIL at PIT (67 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  St. Louis Cardinals

Projected: 6.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 105

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Houston Astros

Projected: 5.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 3.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -130

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -120

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 3.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -130

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Cardinals at Rockies

Projected: 12.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 12.5 O -115

·  Twins at Royals

Projected: 10.73 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -120

·  Rays at Blue Jays

Projected: 10.30 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at D-Backs

Projected: 7.99 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

·  Red Sox at Athletics

Projected: 8.05 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -110

·  Brewers at Pirates

Projected: 8.08 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Cincinnati Reds (40-40) vs. Chicago Cubs (42-39)

O/U: 9.5 | CIN -155 | CHC + 135

Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 23 SP) vs. Alec Mills (THE BAT's No. 250 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 2 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

76 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Sonny Gray may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 68 pitches

·  Sonny Gray's 3.42 ERA is 0.58 points better than his 4.00 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  Alec Mills has been throwing a fastball (15% increase) far less often in 2021 (11% usage) than he did in 2020 (26% usage)

·  Alec Mills has been throwing a sinker (18% increase) far more often in 2021 (51% usage) than he did in 2020 (33% usage)

·  Cincinnati boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker)

·  The Chicago Cubs's 27.4 projected K% (via THE BAT) is the No. 2 most on today's slate of games

·  THE BAT X projects the Cubs (No. 6 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.303 wOBA) thus far in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 71% of the bet tickets and 92% of the cash is on the Reds

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 74% of the bet tickets and 54% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 47-31 resulting in + 12.19 Units (13% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Cincinnati Reds has been their Game Total Over which is 45-32 generating + 9.70 Units (11% ROI)

Kansas City Royals (33-47) vs. Minnesota Twins (33-46)

O/U: 9.5 | KC -125 | MIN + 105

Brady Singer (THE BAT's No. 77 SP) vs. J.A. Happ (THE BAT's No. 206 SP)

Kauffman Stadium (No. 15 Runs | No. 30 HR | No. 29 K)

85 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

4 mph in from LF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Brady Singer has been throwing a fastball (43% increase) far less often in 2021 (2% usage) than he did in 2020 (45% usage)

·  Brady Singer is throwing a sinker 46% more often this season (59% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)

·  Brady Singer's huge platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face six of them today

·  Brady Singer (4.70 ERA) has been underperforming his 4.01 FIP by 0.69 points; quite unlucky indeed

·  This season, J.A. Happ's fastball (90.3 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020

·  J.A. Happ's fastball usage (56% in 2021, 44% in 2020) has increased 12% this season

·  J.A. Happ has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against eight opposite-handed hitters today

·  The Royals have four players (Michael A. Taylor, Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Twins are the No. 2 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.8% according to THE BAT X

·  The Twins have four players (Trevor Larnach, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 10.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  The Kansas City Royals Moneyline opening price of -110 has steamed 15 cents and is now -125

·  The Minnesota Twins Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 50-25 resulting in + 22.55 Units (26% ROI)

·  This season the Royals Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 42-35 resulting in + 4.74 Units (5% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels (39-41) vs. Baltimore Orioles (27-54)

O/U: 9.5 | LAA -165 | BAL + 150

Griffin Canning (THE BAT's No. 174 SP) vs. Keegan Akin (THE BAT's No. 224 SP)

Angel Stadium (No. 18 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

73 degrees (No. 6 coldest today)

8 mph out to CF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Griffin Canning's spin rate (2275 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Griffin Canning has been throwing a curveball (13% increase) far less often in 2021 (11% usage) than he did in 2020 (24% usage)

·  Keegan Akin may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 5 best home run park in baseball (Angel Stadium) given his fly ball tendencies (35% FB% since 2019)

·  Keegan Akin's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face seven of them today

·  The Angels are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 21.7% according to THE BAT X

·  The Angels (0.323 wOBA) have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Orioles offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Pedro Severino, Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Moneyline as 67% of the bet tickets are on the Angels, but 85% of the cash is on the Orioles

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 74% of the bet tickets are on the Angels, but 55% of the cash is on the Orioles

·  This season the Angels Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 49-31 resulting in + 14.35 Units (16% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Baltimore Orioles has been their Team Total Under which is 41-36 generating + 0.54 Units (1% ROI)

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