MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16070898

This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Brandon Woodruff (No. 6 out of 344)

2. ATL - Charlie Morton (No. 12)

3. SF - Kevin Gausman (No. 19)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. PHI - Matt Moore (No. 333 out of 344)

2. DET - Jose Urena (No. 326)

3. CLE - Eli Morgan (No. 305)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at PHI (93 degrees)

2. SD at WSH (89 degrees)

3. LAD at COL (89 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CLE at OAK (59 degrees)

2. MIN at DET (68 degrees)

3. HOU at CWS (70 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected: 6.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -105

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.82 runs

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.78 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Philadelphia Phillies

Projected: 2.98 runs

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.10 runs

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.16 runs

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Rockies

Projected: 11.96 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -105

·  Red Sox at Yankees

Projected: 10.98 runs

·  Padres at Nationals

Projected: 10.17 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Marlins at Phillies

Projected: 6.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.0 O -105

·  Twins at Tigers

Projected: 7.22 runs

·  Giants at Cardinals

Projected: 8.11 runs

 

GAMES OF THE DAY

 

Toronto Blue Jays (45-42) vs. Texas Rangers (35-55)

 

O/U: 9.5 | TOR -250 | TEX 210

Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 80 SP) vs. Jordan Lyles (THE BAT's No. 280 SP)

Sahlen Field

71 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Robbie Ray (94.6 mph) has added 1.1 mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  The spin on Robbie Ray's fastball (2266 rpm) has been 154 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Robbie Ray is throwing a fastball 11% more often this season (60% usage) than he did last season (49% usage)

·  Robbie Ray's 3.13 ERA is 0.85 points better than his 3.97 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  Jordan Lyles' fastball spin rate (2299 rpm) has jumped 154 rpm since 2020

·  Jordan Lyles' slider usage (24% in 2021, 13% in 2020) has increased 11% this season

·  The Blue Jays have four players (Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 3 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The opening Game Total has shown the most line movement today as it opened at UNDER 10.0 Runs (-110), but has been bet down to UNDER 9.5 (-115)

·  The Texas Rangers Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 49-40 resulting in 2.65 Units (2% ROI)

·  This season the Blue Jays Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 45-40 resulting in 1.00 Units (1% ROI)

·  Vladimir Guerrero Jr's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 270/-455) is the most popular prop for the game

 

Oakland Athletics (52-40) vs. Cleveland Indians (45-42)

 

O/U: 8 | OAK -200 | CLE 170

Chris Bassitt (THE BAT's No. 57 SP) vs. Eli Morgan (THE BAT's No. 304 SP)

Oakland Coliseum (No. 29 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)

59 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Chris Bassitt's 3.28 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.94 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Athletics (0.310 wOBA) have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Athletics offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 2 most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Sean Murphy, Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown, Matt Olson)

·  THE BAT X projects the Indians (No. 2 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.301 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Indians have three players (Amed Rosario, Cesar Hernandez, Harold Ramirez) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 8.5 Runs, but is now 8.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  This season the Indians Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 49-35 resulting in 11.10 Units (12% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Oakland Athletics has been their Run Line which is 49-43 generating 6.45 Units (6% ROI)

·  Chris Bassitt's Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/ 120)

 

Arizona Diamondbacks (26-66) vs. Chicago Cubs (44-46)

 

O/U: 9 | ARI 135 | CHC -155

Madison Bumgarner (THE BAT's No. 139 SP) vs. Kyle Hendricks (THE BAT's No. 86 SP)

Chase Field (No. 12 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)

78 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Madison Bumgarner's fastball (90.5 mph) has been 2.6 mph faster than it was last season

·  The spin rate on Madison Bumgarner's fastball (2494 rpm) has increased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  So far in 2021, Kyle Hendricks has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitcher, boasting a 3.77 ERA despite a 4.87 FIP

·  The D-Backs' 0.296 team wOBA makes them the No. 7 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Cubs offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 9.0 Runs

·  This season the Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 53-34 resulting in 14.23 Units (14% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been their Game Total Over which is 50-41 generating 5.15 Units (5% ROI)

·  Kyle Hendricks' Strikeouts Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts ( 115/-150)

 

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Keep an eye out for diminishing returns on teams that you were high on at the beginning of the season like the Colts. Know when to sell on these teams.

Follow The Money: QB play is down in the NFL, according to Michael Lombardi. Worth looking at more Unders until it changes.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Tim Murray: Florida -10 vs Mizzou

Dave Tuley: Texans +7 at Jaguars

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-10-03_at_7.42.33_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close