MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

TODAY'S RANKINGS

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. MIL - Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 341)

2. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 25)

3. COL - German Marquez (No. 29)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TEX - Mike Foltynewicz (No. 291 out of 341)

2. DET - Matt Manning (No. 228)

3. CLE - Cal Quantrill (No. 225)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. PIT at CIN - Mark Ripperger (No. 36 out of 110)

2. SEA at NYY - Tim Timmons (No. 37)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at COL (87 degrees)

2. NYM at PHI (86 degrees)

3. TB at BAL (85 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. ARI at SD (68 degrees)

2. TEX at OAK (68 degrees)

3. MIN at HOU (72 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 5.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -100

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

·  Cincinnati Reds

Projected: 5.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130

·  Los Angeles Angels

Projected: 3.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O 105

·  San Francisco Giants

Projected: 3.70 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Rays at Orioles

Projected: 10.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

·  Mariners at Yankees

Projected: 10.23 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -120

·  Pirates at Reds

Projected: 9.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Giants at Brewers

Projected: 7.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Royals at Cardinals

Projected: 8.13 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -120

·  D-Backs at Padres

Projected: 8.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -120

GAMES OF THE DAY

Colorado Rockies (48-61) vs. Miami Marlins (47-62)

O/U: 9.5 | COL -160 | MIA 140

German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 29 SP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (THE BAT's No. 38 SP)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

87 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

7 mph out to LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  German Marquez's fastball velocity (94.3 mph) has been down 1.1 mph from where it was in 2020 so far this season

·  German Marquez has been throwing a slider (11% increase) far more often in 2021 (28% usage) than he did in 2020 (17% usage)

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, German Marquez (51% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Sandy Alcantara has been throwing a changeup (16% increase) far more often in 2021 (26% usage) than he did in 2020 (10% usage)

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Sandy Alcantara (49% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Sandy Alcantara's 3.12 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.71 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  The Rockies' 0.308 team wOBA makes them the No. 5 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Rockies offense is quite fast; they have the No. 1 (tie) most hitters in baseball with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or better this year (Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story, Garrett Hampson, Yonathan Daza)

·  The Marlins (28.8 K%, via THE BAT X) have the most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The projected lineup for the Marlins holds four extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Lewis Brinson, Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Alfaro, Jazz Chisholm. THE BAT projects all for a Lewis Brinson, Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Alfaro, Jazz Chisholm underlying K%

·  According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.294 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 10.0 Runs and is now 9.5 Runs

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 66% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash on the Rockies

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 65% of the bet tickets and 59% of the cash is on the Rockies

·  German Marquez's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts ( 120/-155) is the most popular prop for the game

San Diego Padres (62-48) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (34-76)

O/U: 8.5 | SD -210 | ARI 175

Ryan Weathers (THE BAT's No. 217 SP) vs. Caleb Smith (THE BAT's No. 201 SP)

Petco Park (No. 23 Runs | No. 20 HR | No. 10 K)

68 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)

6 mph out to RF (No. 7 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Ryan Weathers has a huge platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  So far in 2021, Ryan Weathers has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.65 ERA despite a 5.12 FIP

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Ground ball hitters, and Caleb Smith (48% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today

·  The Padres (22.5 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Padres offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Victor Caratini, Ha-seong Kim, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the D-Backs Moneyline as it's dropped from 195 to 175 despite only getting 32% of the cash

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 91% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash on the Padres

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 57% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 31% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The most popular prop for the game is Manny Machado's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 240/-380)

Los Angeles Dodgers (65-44) vs. Los Angeles Angels (55-54)

O/U: 8.5 | LAD -220 | LAA 180

David Price (THE BAT's No. 100 SP) vs. Patrick Sandoval (THE BAT's No. 61 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 10 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

75 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)

6 mph out to CF (No. 7 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  David Price's 3.55 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.13 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Patrick Sandoval's ability to keep the ball on the ground (52% GB% since 2019) should help him in Dodger Stadium (No. 5 best HR park in MLB) today

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Patrick Sandoval (52% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Dodgers are the No. 5 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 22.8% according to THE BAT X

·  The Dodgers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.328 wOBA going forward

·  The Dodgers have four players (Albert Pujols, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Will Smith) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  According to THE BAT X, the Angels and their 0.319 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total opened at 9.0 Runs, but is now 8.5 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The opening Run Line for the Los Angeles Dodgers was -1.5 ( 105), but is now -1.5 (-105) after it steamed 10 cents

·  The Run Line has lopsided action today with 66% of the bet tickets and 56% of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The most popular prop for the game is Justin Turner's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs ( 400/-860)

 

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