MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 3 out of 341)

2. PHI - Aaron Nola (No. 11)

3. SD - Joe Musgrove (No. 17)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Logan Allen (No. 330 out of 341)

2. WSH - Paolo Espino (No. 322)

3. BAL - Matt Harvey (No. 310)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYY at OAK - Will Little (No. 38 out of 111)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. ARI at PHI - Alfonso Marquez (No. 1 out of 111)

2. KC at SEA - Jeff Nelson (No. 18)

3. STL at PIT - Chad Whitson (No. 41)

Today's Hottest Games

1. WSH at NYM (87 degrees)

2. TB at BAL (86 degrees)

3. CHC at CWS (86 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. KC at SEA (67 degrees)

2. HOU at TEX (70 degrees)

3. NYY at OAK (71 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Tampa Bay Rays

Projected: 6.43 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 115

·  San Diego Padres

Projected: 5.69 runs

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.67 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected: 3.40 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 3.44 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105

·  Oakland Athletics

Projected: 3.62 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Rays at Orioles

Projected: 10.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  Brewers at Twins

Projected: 9.84 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105

·  Red Sox at Indians

Projected: 9.64 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Reds at Marlins

Projected: 7.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O + 100

·  Royals at Mariners

Projected: 7.83 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -110

·  Yankees at Athletics

Projected: 7.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Philadelphia Phillies (63-64) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (44-85)

O/U: 8.5 | PHI -250 | ARI + 210

Aaron Nola (THE BAT's No. 11 SP) vs. Taylor Widener (THE BAT's No. 232 SP)

Alfonso Marquez (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 1 in MLB)

Citizens Bank Park (No. 20 Runs | No. 4 HR | No. 12 K)

85 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

4 mph out to LF (No. 5 weakest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Aaron Nola has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 4.33 ERA despite a 3.53 FIP

·  Taylor Widener may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 8 best home run park in baseball (Citizens Bank Park) given his fly ball tendencies (44% FB% since 2019)

·  Given that Fly ball pitchers are least effective against Ground ball hitters, Taylor Widener (44% FB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  The Phillies' 0.310 team wOBA makes them the No. 3 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The Phillies offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Freddy Galvis, Andrew McCutchen, Didi Gregorius, Rhys Hoskins)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline opening price of -220 has steamed 30 cents and is now -250

·  The Phillies Moneyline has 81% of the bet tickets and 91% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  Bryce Harper's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 260/-425) is the most popular prop for the game

Atlanta Braves (68-58) vs. San Francisco Giants (83-44)

O/U: 8.5 | ATL -120 | SF + 100

Max Fried (THE BAT's No. 46 SP) vs. Kevin Gausman (THE BAT's No. 18 SP)

Truist Park (No. 17 Runs | No. 21 HR | No. 23 K)

85 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)

7 mph in from LF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Thus far in 2021, Max Fried's fastball (93.4 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  Kevin Gausman and his 2.47 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.39 thus far in 2021

·  The Braves offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman)

·  According to THE BAT X, the Giants and their 0.327 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Giants offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or better this year (Brandon Belt, Kris Bryant, Alex Dickerson, Brandon Crawford)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is reverse line movement on the Giants Moneyline as it's dropped from + 105 to + 100 despite only getting 12% of the cash

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 88% of the cash and 52% of the bet tickets is on the Braves

·  The most popular prop for the game is Freddie Freeman's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 350/-675)

Chicago White Sox (74-55) vs. Chicago Cubs (56-73)

O/U: 9.0 | CWS -200 | CHC + 170

Dallas Keuchel (THE BAT's No. 106 SP) vs. Keegan Thompson (THE BAT's No. 170 SP)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 4 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

86 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

8 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Dallas Keuchel's ground ball tendencies (57% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 1 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Dallas Keuchel (57% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with three Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Dallas Keuchel's 4.71 ERA is 0.52 points better than his 5.23 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  The White Sox (26.7 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 4 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Chicago boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Sprint Speed this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Leury Garcia, Tim Anderson, Cesar Hernandez)

·  The projected lineup for the Cubs holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Robinson Chirinos, Michael Hermosillo, Patrick Wisdom. THE BAT projects all for a Robinson Chirinos, Michael Hermosillo, Patrick Wisdom+ underlying K%

·  THE BAT X views the Cubs as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Cubs Moneyline has 41% of the cash, but the it's dropped from + 180 to + 170 resulting in reverse line movement

·  The Game Total opened at 9.5 Runs, but is now 9.0 Runs as there is line movement toward the UNDER

·  The most popular prop for the game is Dallas Keuchel's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)

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