MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. BOS - Chris Sale (No. 9 out of 339)

2. LAD - Walker Buehler (No. 18)

3. HOU - Lance McCullers Jr. (No. 26)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE - Sam Hentges (No. 319 out of 339)

2. ARI - Tyler Gilbert (No. 313)

3. MIN - Charlie Barnes (No. 307)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. NYM at LAD - Nestor Ceja (No. 10 out of 111)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. MIA at CIN - John Tumpane (No. 40 out of 111)

Today's Hottest Games

1. MIA at CIN (86 degrees)

2. PIT at STL (85 degrees)

3. KC at CHC (82 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. SF at OAK (60 degrees)

2. PHI at SD (70 degrees)

3. NYM at LAD (71 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 6.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -130

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 6.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 110

·  Colorado Rockies

Projected: 6.26 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Washington Nationals

Projected: 3.50 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -115

·  Texas Rangers

Projected: 3.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -145

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.87 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Yankees

Projected: 11.75 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -115

·  D-Backs at Rockies

Projected: 11.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -105

·  Braves at Orioles

Projected: 10.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O -110

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Nationals at Brewers

Projected: 7.89 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -115

·  White Sox at Rays

Projected: 8.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

·  Royals at Cubs

Projected: 8.59 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Baltimore Orioles (38-82) vs. Atlanta Braves (65-56)

O/U: 10.0 | BAL + 200 | ATL -240

Keegan Akin (THE BAT's No. 229 SP) vs. Max Fried (THE BAT's No. 47 SP)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards (No. 4 Runs | No. 7 HR | No. 24 K)

79 degrees (No. 6 hottest today)

4 mph in from CF (No. 6 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Keegan Akin may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 2 best home run park in baseball (Oriole Park at Camden Yards) given his fly ball tendencies (36% FB% since 2019)

·  Fly ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Keegan Akin (36% FB% since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Keegan Akin is projected to face eight opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Thus far in 2021, Max Fried's fastball (93.4 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season

·  Oriole Park at Camden Yards is baseball's No. 2 best park for home runs, but Max Fried's ground ball-heavy skillset (53% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Max Fried (53% GB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Ground ball pitchers perform best against Ground ball hitters

·  The Orioles have five players (Maikel Franco, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 2 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Braves have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 5 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.324 wOBA going forward

·  Atlanta boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Dansby Swanson, Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman, Jorge Soler, Austin Riley)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 10.5 Runs and is now 10.0 Runs

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 92% of the bet tickets and 94% of the cash on the Braves

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 78% of the bet tickets and 98% of the cash is on the Braves

·  This season the Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and is 64-46 resulting in + 8.85 Units (7% ROI)

·  This season the Orioles Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 63-53 resulting in + 4.04 Units (3% ROI)

·  Max Fried's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+ 100/-130) is the most popular prop for the game

Cincinnati Reds (66-57) vs. Miami Marlins (51-71)

O/U: 8.5 | CIN -190 | MIA + 165

Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 42 SP) vs. Elieser Hernandez (THE BAT's No. 99 SP)

John Tumpane (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 40 in MLB)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

86 degrees (No. 1 hottest today)

4 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin on Sonny Gray's fastball (2422 rpm) has been nearly 100 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Sonny Gray's ground ball tendencies (52% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park (No. 1 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Sonny Gray (52% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with two Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Elieser Hernandez may be especially susceptible to the long-ball today pitching in the No. 1 best home run park in baseball (Great American Ball Park) given his fly ball tendencies (45% FB% since 2019)

·  Elieser Hernandez (45% FB% since 2019) projects to face two Ground ball hitters today, which could play to his disadvantage since Fly ball pitchers perform worst against Ground ball hitters

·  So far in 2021, Elieser Hernandez has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 2.84 ERA despite a 4.70 FIP

·  The Reds (0.331 wOBA) have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  The Marlins are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.1% according to THE BAT X

·  Strikeouts against Miami may be easy to come by today, as three players (Elieser Hernandez, Jorge Alfaro, Jazz Chisholm) project for a 30%+ underlying K%, via THE BAT X

·  According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.297 wOBA have been the No. 3 luckiest offense in 2021

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Marlins Run Line has steamed 15 cents as it opened at + 1.5 (-115) and is now + 1.5 (-130)

·  The Game Total has 82% of the bet tickets on the UNDER, but 17% of the cash is on the OVER resulting in two-way action

·  There is two-way action on the Run Line as 85% of the bet tickets are on the Reds, but 53% of the cash is on the Marlins

·  The Cincinnati Reds Team Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 68-50 resulting in + 9.50 Units (7% ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Miami Marlins has been their Team Total Under which is 63-55 generating + 0.13 Units (0% ROI)

·  The most popular prop for the game is Sonny Gray's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)

Milwaukee Brewers (74-48) vs. Washington Nationals (52-68)

O/U: 9.0 | MIL -200 | WSH + 170

Brett Anderson (THE BAT's No. 193 SP) vs. Patrick Corbin (THE BAT's No. 111 SP)

American Family Field (No. 18 Runs | No. 9 HR | No. 6 K)

78 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

8 mph in from CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Brett Anderson's ground ball tendencies (57% GB% since 2019) ought to play well in homer-friendly American Family Field (No. 10 best HR park in baseball) today

·  Given that Ground ball pitchers are most effective against Ground ball hitters, Brett Anderson (57% GB% since 2019) is well-situated today with four Ground ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup

·  Brett Anderson's 4.09 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 4.63 projected ERA from THE BAT

·  Thus far in 2021, Patrick Corbin's fastball (91.6 mph) has been 2.0 mph faster than it was last season

·  Patrick Corbin is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  Milwaukee boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Omar Narvaez, Avisail Garcia, Eduardo Escobar, Luis Urias)

·  THE BAT X views the Nationals as the No. 1 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Nationals Run Line has steamed 10 cents as it opened at + 1.5 (-110) and is now + 1.5 (-120)

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 64% of the bet tickets are on the UNDER, but 15% of the cash is on the OVER

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 67% of the bet tickets and 64% of the cash on the Brewers

·  This season the Brewers Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 68-54 resulting in + 16.80 Units (11% ROI)

·  The Washington Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 65-51 resulting in + 9.35 Units (7% ROI)

·  Juan Soto's Total Bases Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+ 120/-155)

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