MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

 

TODAY'S RANKINGS ROUND-UP

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. NYY - Gerrit Cole (No. 2 out of 300)

2. CLE - Shane Bieber (No. 3)

3. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 14)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. TEX - Kohei Arihara (No. 297 out of 300)

2. OAK - Mike Fiers (No. 288)

3. ARI - Madison Bumgarner (No. 271)

Today's Hottest Games

1. COL at ARI (83 degrees)

2. ATL at TOR (76 degrees)

3. LAD at MIL (72 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. CLE at CWS (47 degrees)

2. STL at PIT (50 degrees)

3. BAL at OAK (54 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Atlanta Braves

Projected: 5.98 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.94 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -115

·  New York Yankees

Projected: 5.63 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -180

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 2.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O + 115

·  Detroit Tigers

Projected: 3.07 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -180

·  Seattle Mariners

Projected: 3.47 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Braves at Blue Jays

Projected: 11.93 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105

·  Cubs at Reds

Projected: 9.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -105

·  Mets at Phillies

Projected: 9.09 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Indians at White Sox

Projected: 6.48 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O -120

·  Giants at Padres

Projected: 7.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -105

·  Marlins at Nationals

Projected: 7.56 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

New York Yankees (11-14) vs. Detroit Tigers (8-18)

7.5 O/U | NYY -355 | DET + 295

Gerrit Cole (THE BAT's No. 2 SP) vs. Tarik Skubal (THE BAT's No. 220 SP)

Yankee Stadium (No. 15 Runs | No. 2 HR | No. 15 K)

59 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

19 mph out to RF (No. 1 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Tarik Skubal (92.9 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Skubal's spin rate (2214 rpm) has decreased by 208 rpm in 2021

·  Skubal is a flyball pitcher (52% FB% since 2019) and Yankee Stadium is the second-most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Skubal is throwing a slider 12% more often this season (28% usage) than he did last season (16% usage)

·  Gerrit Cole has been quite unlucky this season, posting a 1.71 ERA despite a 0.83 FIP

·  The Yankees have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the #2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.300 wOBA going forward

·  The Tigers have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the #3 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.265 wOBA going forward

·  The Tigers have 4 players (Jonathan Schoop, Wilson Ramos, Willi Castro, Miguel Cabrera) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #3 most in MLB

·  The Tigers (26.0 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #2 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with an underlying K% over 30%, according to THE BAT X (Akil Baddoo, JaCoby Jones, Niko Goodrum)

·  Tarik Skubal has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against 8 opposite-handed hitters today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  This game has the most lopsided Moneyline today as 85% of the bet tickets and 86% of the cash thus far is on the New York Yankees

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.0 Runs, but sharp action has bet the UNDER to 7.5 Runs

·  The most popular prop for the game is Gerrit Cole's Strikeouts Prop which is currently at Over/Under 9.5 Strikeouts (-135/+ 100)

·  This season Detroit Tigers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and are 18-8 to generate + 9.25 Units (33% ROI)

·  This season New York Yankees Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and are 17-8 to generate + 8.71 Units (30% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds (11-13) vs. Chicago Cubs (11-14)

9.0 O/U | CIN -125 | CHC + 105

Wade Miley (THE BAT's No. 174 SP) vs. Jake Arrieta (THE BAT's No. 200 SP)

Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)

61 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)

14 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Jake Arrieta (90.6 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Great American Ball Park is baseball's best park for home runs, but Wade Miley's groundball-heavy skillset (51% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball

·  Jake Arrieta is throwing a changeup 11% less often this season (6% usage) than he did last season (17% usage)

·  Jake Arrieta has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.57 ERA is 0.99 points below his 3.56 FIP

·  According to THE BAT X, the Reds and their 0.326 wOBA have been the No. 6 luckiest offense in 2021

·  The Cubs have 5 players (Javier Baez, David Bote, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tops in MLB

·  The Reds have five players (Kyle Farmer, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, tops in MLB

·  Flyball pitchers tend to perform better against flyball hitters, and Wade Miley (51% FB% since 2019) is projected to face five of them today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is two-way action on the Game Total as 65% of the bet tickets are on the OVER, but 68% of the cash is on the UNDER

·  We're seeing line movement on the Game Total as it opened at 8.5 Runs, but sharp action has bet the OVER to 9.0 Runs

·  The most popular prop for the game is Nick Castellanos's Home Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 385/-805)

·  This season Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market and are 19-6 to generate + 12.30 Units (43% ROI)

·  On the year, Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over has been their most profitable market and are 17-6 to generate + 10.40 Units (39% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays (11-12) vs. Atlanta Braves (12-13)

10.5 O/U | TOR -130 | ATL + 110

Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 154 SP) vs. Drew Smyly (THE BAT's No. 145 SP)

TD Ballpark (No. 6 Runs | No. 5 HR | No. 7 K)

76 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

8 mph out to LF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Robbie Ray (94.3 mph) has added nearly a full mph to his fastball velocity this season

·  Robbie Ray's spin rate (2272 rpm) has decreased by 148 rpm in 2021

·  Drew Smyly's spin rate (2156 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  Smyly is a flyball pitcher (39% FB% since 2019) and TD Ballpark is the #4 most extreme park in baseball for boosting home runs

·  Ray is throwing a slider 16% less often this season (16% usage) than he did last season (32% usage)

·  Ray has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.81 ERA is 2.64 points below his 5.45 FIP

·  The Blue Jays have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the #1 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.294 wOBA going forward

·  The Braves have four players (Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #3 most in MLB

·  The Blue Jays have three players (Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, #6 most in MLB

·  The Blue Jays (20.1 K%, via THE BAT X) have the #3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  Drew Smyly has a reverse platoon split, making him more effective against opposite-handed hitters, which he's projected to face 8 of today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  Heavy sharp action on the OVER, has moved the Game Total a full run as it opened at 9.5 Runs and is now 10.5 Runs

·  The most popular prop for the game is Ronald Acuna Jr.'s Home Runs Prop which is currently at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 365/-730)

·  On the year, Atlanta Braves Team Total Over has been their most profitable market and are 15-7 to generate + 6.35 Units (23% ROI)

·  The Toronto Blue Jays Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and are 15-8 to generate + 6.20 Units (24% ROI)

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