MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Friday's games

By Derek Carty  (VSiN.com) 

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

1. LAD - Clayton Kershaw (No. 9 out of 352)

2. CIN - Luis Castillo (No. 17)

3. CWS - Lance Lynn (No. 18)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. BAL - Thomas Eshelman (No. 349 out of 352)

2. WSH - Josh Rogers (No. 344)

3. SD - Reiss Knehr (No. 320)

Today's Hottest Games

1. COL at ARI (79 degrees)

2. NYM at ATL (79 degrees)

3. MIL at LAD (78 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. LAA at SEA (56 degrees)

2. BAL at TOR (59 degrees)

3. TB at NYY (65 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago White Sox

Projected: 5.55 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 115

·  Toronto Blue Jays

Projected: 5.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O + 105

·  Boston Red Sox

Projected: 5.31 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 100

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Miami Marlins

Projected: 2.74 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 120

·  Chicago Cubs

Projected: 2.90 runs

·  Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected: 3.24 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 110

THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Royals

Projected: 9.76 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100

·  Rays at Yankees

Projected: 9.25 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -115

·  Orioles at Blue Jays

Projected: 9.06 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Phillies at Marlins

Projected: 6.12 runs

·  Cubs at Cardinals

Projected: 6.62 runs

·  Angels at Mariners

Projected: 7.28 runs | Vegas O/U: 7.5 O -115

GAMES OF THE DAY

Washington Nationals (65-94) vs. Boston Red Sox (89-70)

O/U: 9.0 | WSH + 170 | BOS -200

Josh Rogers (THE BAT's No. 344 SP) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (THE BAT's No. 26 SP)

Nationals Park (No. 12 Runs | No. 12 HR | No. 14 K)

67 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

3 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Josh Rogers has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today

·  Despite a 3.39 FIP, Eduardo Rodriguez's unlucky ERA has been 1.53 points worse at 4.93

·  The Nationals (0.327 wOBA) have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X projects the Red Sox (No. 2 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.333 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Red Sox offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel percentage in the 75th percentile or better this year (Bobby Dalbec, Kyle Schwarber, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 77 percent of the bet tickets and 93 percent of the cash is on the Red Sox

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 98 percent of the cash and 59 percent of the bet tickets is on the Red Sox

·  The Boston Red Sox Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 87-65 resulting in + 5.50 Units (3 percent ROI)

·  The Washington Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 78-67 resulting in + 4.85 Units (3 percent ROI)

Chicago White Sox (91-68) vs. Detroit Tigers (76-83)

O/U: 8.5 | CWS -270 | DET + 230

Lance Lynn (THE BAT's No. 18 SP) vs. Wily Peralta (THE BAT's No. 301 SP)

Guaranteed Rate Field (No. 5 Runs | No. 3 HR | No. 8 K)

74 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)

7 mph in from CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  The spin on Lance Lynn's fastball (2403 rpm) has been nearly 100 rpm less than it was in 2020

·  Lance Lynn is throwing a cutter 10 percent more often this season (31 percent usage) than he did last season (21 percent usage)

·  Lance Lynn is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split

·  So far in 2021, Lance Lynn has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 2.78 ERA despite a 3.38 FIP

·  The White Sox' 0.329 team wOBA makes them the No. 1 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

·  The White Sox offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Andrew Vaughn, Yasmani Grandal, Cesar Hernandez)

·  The Tigers are the No. 4 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K percentage of 26.0 percent according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Tigers as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Tigers offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 3 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Robbie Grossman, Niko Goodrum, Akil Baddoo)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The White Sox Moneyline has 78 percent of the bet tickets and 88 percent of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The White Sox Run Line has 67 percent of the bet tickets and 90 percent of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle

·  This season the Tigers Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 76-78 resulting in + 28.10 Units (18 percent ROI)

·  This season the White Sox Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 75-66 resulting in + 1.90 Units (1 percent ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers (103-56) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (95-64)

O/U: 8.0 | LAD -230 | MIL + 190

Clayton Kershaw (THE BAT's No. 9 SP) vs. Eric Lauer (THE BAT's No. 113 SP)

Dodger Stadium (No. 9 Runs | No. 8 HR | No. 22 K)

78 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

4 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  Clayton Kershaw (90.1 mph) has lost nearly a full mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Clayton Kershaw's large platoon split makes him especially ineffective against opposite-handed hitters, and he's projected to face eight of them today

·  Eric Lauer has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.77 ERA is 1.11 points below his 3.88 FIP

·  The Dodgers (21.2 K percentage, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Dodgers have four players (Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Will Smith) with a Home Run Zone Launch Angle percentage in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  The Brewers (25.7 K percentage, via THE BAT X) have the No. 5 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Dodgers Run Line opening price of -1.5 (+ 100) has steamed 10 cents and is now -1.5 (-110)

·  There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 83 percent of the cash and 55 percent of the bet tickets is on the UNDER

·  The most profitable market for the Milwaukee Brewers has been their Run Line which is 84-70 generating + 17.50 Units (9 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Dodgers has been their Game Total Under which is 78-66 generating + 5.85 Units (3 percent ROI)

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