MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 7/6

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

July 6, 2022 12:15 PM
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Baseball games are spread throughout the day on Wednesday with a handful of matinees and a bigger grouping of night games. It sure feels like a tricky environment for betting right now. Surging teams are heavy favorites on a nightly basis and are taking care of their affairs. Teams that have been struggling continue to struggle and have been at big underdog prices. Everybody else seems like a crapshoot day-to-day. Thirteen of 15 teams in the AL have either won or lost at least two in a row and nine of the 10 in the NL East/West have a similar streak,

The All-Star Break is 11 days away. All of the off days from April and early May are gone and we’re seeing more spot starters, more day-of pitching changes (like yesterday for the Twins and Dodgers) and the heat of summer take a toll. I’ll be treading lightly for the next week and a half.

Lastly, I wanted to mention yesterday’s mess with the Twins pitching change that took a play off the board. My handicaps are for LISTED PITCHERS ONLY and I suggest that you always select that option at your sportsbook of choice. ‘Action’ means your bet is live no matter the starting pitcher, which makes no sense for you as a bettor because you didn’t handicap the game based on the new pitcher. If there is a pitching change, it is a no play from me.

Yesterday’s Recap

Mets/Reds: A 1-0 game at Great American Ball Park feels like seeing a narwhal and a unicorn in the same place, but that’s what we got from Max Scherzer, Nick Lodolo and the Reds bullpen. What’s even rarer is that it was the Reds that won it. How good was Lodolo? He pitched 4.2 innings and had the same number of swings and misses that Scherzer did over six innings with 11 strikeouts.

There were four hard-hit balls for the Mets and two for the Reds. The game featured 21 strikeouts on just 273 pitches. This was like a getaway night game from the box score.

Cardinals/Braves: Nowhere close on this handicap with the underdog Cardinals, as Atlanta won 7-1. Ian Anderson only walked one, but did give up eight hits in five innings. It’s just that all eight were singles, so the Cardinals mustered very little offense. Andre Pallante gave up five in the first and the game was basically over at that point. Teams in funks seem to be having a hard time getting out of them right now. The Cardinals have lost five of six and have scored three or fewer runs in all five losses.

Cubs/Brewers: Kyle Hendricks left after three innings and 69 pitches with two runs allowed on two hits and two walks. He doesn’t throw that hard anyway, but after sitting 87 in the first, he sat 84-85 the rest of the way. The results of today’s MRI showed a shoulder strain, so he’ll likely be out a while.

Giants/Diamondbacks: The Giants were one of two subjects in the Regression Report this week, as they fell to a game within .500 in the 6-2 loss to the Diamondbacks. This time, it was an eighth-inning bullpen melt in what had been a 2-1 game. Alex Wood, mentioned in last week’s Regression Report, threw five solid innings, but was pulled after just 71 pitches. He apparently had hamstring cramps, but he’s also allowed a .429 wOBA the third time through the order in 52 plate appearances, so he probably wouldn’t have gone deep anyway.

The Giants are a mess right now. I will admit that it takes me a while to sour on analytically-savvy teams, but the Giants have been fading fast.

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