MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 6/22

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 22, 2022 12:28 PM
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We’ve got another full dance card for Wednesday, as all 30 teams are in action, including a handful of day games. The lines are tightening up out there, as sportsbooks have gotten just about all of the data that they need on the teams and what bettors do with various pitchers. That means you really have to dig deep into your research to find good angles and actionable info.

Baseball is also getting a lot more attention now that the NBA Finals are over and there is a maximum of four hockey games left. We’re seeing more and more bettors get involved on the diamond, so keep an eye out for some areas in which favorites may be propped up a few cents here and there to cost a little extra for those straight bets and moneyline parlays, especially depending on the book.

Yesterday’s Recap

Dodgers/Reds: Tony Gonsolin actually cleared a pretty big hurdle yesterday. While the Reds aren’t thought of as an elite offense by any means, they are one of the best home offenses in the league, but Gonsolin had 19 whiffs in 49 swings over five respectable innings. He gave up a couple of solo homers and got pulled after 87 pitches. While I’m very skeptical of this pace continuing deep into the summer and on into the fall, Gonsolin’s Whiff% are up on the four-seam fastball and the splitter this month and those are his two primary pitches that he is throwing about 64% of the time for the season and even more in June. Fatigue is the only thing that will slow him down.

Rockies/Marlins: As it turned out, the Marlins got Jesus Aguilar and Jesus Sanchez back from the COVID list yesterday for the 9-8 win over the Rockies. Ryan Feltner looked great for three innings and then it all came crashing down in the fourth, while Daniel Castano never looked good. Can’t say I expected 17 runs with these two offenses in this venue, but the Marlins had an xBA of .415 with 18 hard-hit balls in the game. It’s still crazy to me that the Marlins of all teams rank sixth in wOBA against RHP.

Cubs/Pirates: The Cubs lost 7-1 yesterday, despite an xBA advantage of .284 to .181 against the Pirates. Pittsburgh didn’t make a ton of great content in the game, but took advantage of their opportunities better than Chicago did, which was a topic I wrote about in this week’s Regression Report.

The Pirates do seem to have some life with Oneil Cruz up and I’m still a big fan of that bullpen. Maybe they’ll be lined at more palatable prices after playing the downtrodden Cubs.

Giants/Braves: What a roller coaster this game was. The Giants prevailed 12-10, as neither Spencer Strider nor Anthony DeSclafani pitched well. Strider worked some deep innings, but did have a velo drop on his fastball yesterday, so I’ll keep an eye on that with his transition from relieving to starting.

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