MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 6/1

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

June 1, 2022 11:53 AM
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I don’t know about all of you, but I’m happy to see the month of May come to an end. The entire month felt like a season within a season, as we saw the transition from the dead ball to the livelier ball that created a lot more offense in the second half of the second month of the season. Warmer weather and humid conditions contributed to an offensive uptick, but it still felt like throwing darts with a good buzz on because there were some games with 20 runs and still a fair share of 3-1 and 3-2 games.

Hopefully June provides a little more consistency and clarity as opposed to massive adjustments on the fly. We’ll see what the first day of the month holds, as we’ve got a jam-packed card with a lot of games and a lot of left-handed starters.

Yesterday’s Recap

Giants/Phillies: Things are not going well in Philadelphia. The Phillies have dropped five in a row, seven of eight and 12 of 16. Offense picked up around the league, but Philadelphia’s took a nosedive. In this current stretch, the Phillies are also just 1-4 in one-run games, as they just keep finding ways to lose. Yesterday’s featured more bad defense accompanied by the musical stylings of Boots Randolph’s Yakety Sax.

The cherry on top was another bullpen melt. The Phillies were also 3-for-17 with RISP. They’re pretty toxic to bet on at this point, even with some pretty good starting pitchers and a lot of offensive potential.

Nationals/Mets: Patrick Corbin gave up seven runs on 12 hits in 4.1 innings and the Mets scored 10 runs on 17 hits overall. Washington scored zero runs. Juan Soto has the 25th-lowest percentage of fastballs thrown among 164 qualified hitters and his average is down to .232. Things are really looking bleak for the Nationals. As for the Mets, well, let’s see what happens when the schedule ramps up starting this weekend in LA.

Padres/Cardinals: I scared myself off of taking the Cardinals against a lefty, but they needed extra innings to beat the Padres by a 3-2 count. Blake Snell had 15 whiffs and only gave up two runs over six innings. That paled in comparison to Adam Wainwright’s 10 strikeouts over seven shutout frames. Wainwright had 10 strikeouts with only nine swings and misses, which is crazy.

San Diego is down to a .297 wOBA and a 93 wRC + on the season. This is not a very good offensive club, which may be another reason why we’ve seen a lot of anti-Padres sentiment in the marketplace. Their 36 HR are the fifth-fewest in baseball. This does really appear to be an overachieving team.

Braves/Diamondbacks: Atlanta can’t be losing games with seven runs scored, but it happened yesterday, as the Diamondbacks won in walk-off fashion after erasing a 5-2 deficit. There were some positives for the Braves, as Matt Olson went 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBI to snap out of a skid and the team had a 50% Hard Hit%. But, it still went down as another loss to the scrappy Snakes.

Charlie Morton only had five whiffs on 36 swings. His command has really failed him this season. The curveball still has an elite spin rate, but it was hit hard yesterday and he struggled despite a velo bump. Something to watch moving forward.

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