The day-to-day challenges of betting go beyond handicapping the games and looking at the matchups. With yesterday’s card, I had written out the Blue Jays as a pick at -135 and pivoted at the last minute to take the 1st 5 under, which wound up being a bad decision. Sportsbooks don’t want to operate under the “less is more” strategy. The more betting options there are out there with the vig and the house edge, the more chances that bettors have to trip up. I should’ve stuck with my gut and my initial read.
I’ve talked about this before and no matter how much I attempt to speak it into existence, I know I’m going to go in a different direction and make a misstep again at multiple points this season. As I step off my soapbox and get into the meat of today’s article, I’ll just end by saying that confidence is key in this business and you have to do whatever you can to find it.
Rockies/Pirates: The Rockies scored two runs in 10 innings yesterday and have now scored 44 runs in 17 road games. Like I said yesterday, maybe we just need to blindly bet their team total unders on the road. It cashed again yesterday, along with an easy under in the 2-1 game. Kris Bryant is also back on the IL again, which won’t help matters.
Cubs/Reds: Another trend continued yesterday, as Great American Ball Park played to another over with 15 runs on the board. The Cubs won 11-4, as Tyler Mahle’s home splits reared their ugly head again with eight runs allowed on nine hits in four innings. His ERA jumped to 6.32. He still looks like a positive regression candidate by the stats, and maybe he will be in his road outings, but positive regression assumes a reasonable level of command. Mahle had none yesterday.
Dodgers/Nationals: I was a bit surprised to see money against Walker Buehler and on Josiah Gray and the Nats in the overnight and early-morning hours. As it turns out, those funds were misguided in LA’s 9-4 win. Gray continues to really struggle with the lack of depth in his arsenal. In the current pitch-to-contact era, I think pitchers with shallower arsenals and bad fastballs are likely to struggle more. Batters are now slugging .662 on Gray’s fastball, which he’s throwing almost 46% of the time.
Phillies/Braves: These teams traded blown saves in the ninth inning yesterday, as Atlanta prevailed 6-5. The Phillies are now just 11-23 when scoring seven or fewer runs. That’s not really a sustainable path to winning. I wind up with a love-hate relationship with this team because I see the potential, but I also see a lot of downside. In that same breath, the Phillies are 5-17 when they allow four or more runs. That makes this team really hard to bet on.
Mets/Giants: If you stayed up late to watch this one, you were treated to an instant classic. It looked like a dud, as the Giants knocked around Chris Bassitt and led 8-1 going into the seventh, but the Mets scored 10 runs in the final three innings, only to lose in walk-off fashion 13-12. Lost in the craziness is that Logan Webb threw five solid innings and Joc Pederson hit three home runs, had eight RBI and all six of his batted balls were 95 + mph, including a 95.1 mph HR with an xBA of .160. His other two homers were no-doubters.